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Actual pace of price growth in September significantly lower than NBU's forecast

In September 2023, consumer inflation in annual terms (y/y) further slowed down to 7.1% from 8.6% in August.

This is stated in the message of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.5%.

The actual rates of price growth were significantly lower than the forecast of the National Bank, published in the Inflation Report for July 2023.

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The faster slowdown in inflation was caused primarily by a greater supply of food products, in particular vegetables and fruits of the new harvest, as well as better harvests of grain and oilseeds, including against the background of faster harvesting.

These factors, in the context of limited export opportunities, affected the cost of both raw and processed food products.

The main contribution to the slowdown in raw food inflation was made by the cheapening of fruit.

Thus, the prices of watermelons and grapes decreased due to an increase in production volumes, and for bananas and citrus fruits - due to a drop in external prices.

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The increase in apple prices slowed down thanks to a better harvest than last year.

The preservation of significant rates of decline in prices for vegetables was due to good harvests of most of their types due to favorable weather conditions and the increase in production volumes in individual regions.

Cereals and flour fell further, reflecting low export prices and increased production.

The more moderate increase in the price of eggs was due to the effects of the comparison base, but the prices of eggs remained high in the conditions of an increase in their export.

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The growth of milk prices slowed down under the influence of lower world prices and weak external demand.

The increase in the price of alcoholic beverages once again slowed down due to the slower growth of production costs against the background of pressure from the shadow supply.

The moratorium on raising a number of tariffs for housing and utility services for the population continued to restrain administrative inflation.

On the other hand, the growth of prices for transport services accelerated somewhat due to the recovery of fuel prices.

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Fuel became more expensive in September against the background of rising global oil prices and depletion of fuel stocks purchased before the July excise tax increase.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in September 2023, consumer prices rose by 0.5%.

In January-September 2023, inflation was 3.0%.

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