The general downward trend in inflation will continue, but the potential for its rapid slowdown is almost exhausted.
This is stated in the message of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
On the one hand, better harvests will limit price growth in the following months as well.
The impact of fixing individual tariffs for housing and utility services will also remain.
It is reported that the NBU will continue to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market in order to keep exchange rate and inflationary expectations under control.
All this will contribute to the further reduction of inflation.
On the other hand, pressure on business costs will remain significant due to both war-related losses and higher electricity and fuel prices. This factor can restrain the slowdown of inflation.
The receipt of official financing enables the NBU not only to compensate for a significant shortage of currency on the market, but also to maintain international reserves at a high level.
At the same time, budgetary needs in war conditions remain high.
Own revenues and domestic investments are not enough to cover budget expenditures, therefore, international aid will continue to be the main guarantee of emission-free financing of the budget.
Given this, timely and full implementation of the conditions of the program with the IMF is critically important.
The key risk for inflation dynamics and economic development remains the duration, as well as the unpredictable nature and intensity of full-scale war.
High uncertainty regarding the end of the active phase of hostilities remains.
Terrorist attacks by the russian army, new large-scale destruction and prolongation of hostilities continue to threaten more significant losses of the potential of the Ukrainian economy and unpredictable inflationary shocks.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in August 2023, consumer prices decreased by 1.4%.
In January-August 2023, inflation was 2.5%.
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