2023-09-11T09:55:00+03:00 Politics 2024-08-15T04:49:01+03:00

Ukrainian news

Ukraine's economy recovering faster than expected. Economy Ministry forecasts GDP growth of up to 4% in 2023

Ukraine's economy recovering faster than expected. Economy Ministry forecasts GDP growth of up to 4% in 2023

The Ukrainian economy is recovering faster than previously predicted. Despite the loss of 29.6% of GDP last year, Ukraine managed to maintain macro-financial stability. The support of Ukrainian partners and the political decisions of the government ensured it.

This was stated by the First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yuliya Svyrydenko during a speech at the YES 2023 Yalta European Strategy Forum, Korespondent reports.

Svyrydenko noted that according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, consumer inflation will slow down to 10.6% in 2023, and core inflation will slow down to 9%. This happens despite the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and the return to the pre-war level of fuel taxation.

"We predict that the inflation rate will continue to slow down in the coming years. All institutions are revising their GDP growth forecasts towards an increase. We, the Ministry of Economy, expect growth in 2023 to be closer to 4%. This is a more optimistic forecast than the NBU's, which expects growth at the level of 2.9% of GDP," Svyrydenko said.

According to her, in the medium term, we can expect economic growth of 3.5% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025. But even despite such estimates, the economy has more significant potential for recovery.

Also, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, the unemployment rate will decrease to 19% this year and to 16.9% and 14.4% in 2024-2025, respectively.

Forecasts for the main sectors of the economy have also been improved. Thus, the harvest of grain and oil crops will be larger than last year - at least 50 million tons of grain and oil crops are expected to be exported, as well as at least 10 million tons of oil and meal.

Production in the metallurgical industry is increasing, and the export of metal products is increasing accordingly. But total production is almost four times lower now than it will be by 2022. The forecast for this year is the production of 6 million tons of steel.

According to Svyrydenko's forecast, the transition to a fast-growing and future-oriented economy will take place in the next four years. Thus, within the framework of the Ukrainian Facility Recovery Plan for Ukraine, measures are foreseen that will allow the implementation of large-scale projects in the field of "green metallurgy" and other ecologically clean industrial projects, which should strengthen Ukraine's integration into the EU and world markets.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in April 2023, the National Bank improved the GDP growth forecast from 0.3% to 2% in 2023.

The reduction of security risks from next year, which is assumed in the base scenario of the NBU forecast, will contribute to the acceleration of economic growth - up to 4.3% in 2024 and up to 6.4% in 2025.

Meanwhile, the World Bank has downgraded Ukraine's GDP growth forecast in 2023 from 3.3% to 2%.