AFU break through russia's strongest defense line in the south – ISW

In the course of counteroffensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia Region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) probably broke through the most well-prepared line of defense of the russian occupiers. The following ones might not be as well-fortified.

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War came to these conclusions.

It is noted that Ukrainian military officers gave a particularly frank and direct comment about the prospects of a further offensive by the AFU in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia Region and noted that a number of prepared russian defensive positions immediately ahead and south of the movement of Ukraine's Defense Forces may be less difficult for our troops.

In particular, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops, spoke about the counteroffensive of the AFU in an interview for The Guardian on September 2. He noted that the Ukrainian fighters resolutely broke through the "first defense line" of the russian invaders. Tarnavskyi expects faster successes as the AFU puts pressure on the enemy's weaker "second line" of defense.

Ukraine's defense forces have advanced to another series of prepared russian defensive positions in certain areas in the Robotyne area of the western Zaporizhzhia Region. However, many russian sources claim that these positions are the first, not the second, defense layer in the russian army's multi-echelon defense in southern Ukraine.

The publication notes that Ukrainian officials and russian "militants" use different terminology to describe the same positions.

Tarnavskyi stated that the russian military spent 60% of its time and resources building a series of defensive positions that the AFU have now breached and only 20% on each of the following two defensive layers further south.

ISW points out that this series of breached russian defensive positions is a system of interconnected trenches and occupier dugouts protected by anti-tank ditches and dense minefields, and Tarnavskyi's report confirms analysts' previous observation that russian forces may be preparing for the next series of defensive layers, especially regarding the density of minefields.

Russian defensive positions are unequal in strength across the front line in the western Zaporizhzhia Region, and Tarnavskyi's description of weaker russian defensive positions can only apply to the immediate vicinity of Robotyne. Tarnavskyi also commented on the importance of Ukrainian efforts in other parts of southern Ukraine and suggested that the offensive of Ukrainian troops in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia Region is an operational priority.

Ukrainian military officials especially note that the forces of the AFU advancing in the south of the country can operate more freely in areas with rarer russian minefields.

Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesman of the joint press center of the defense forces of the area of Tavria, said on September 3 that the minefields near the next series of russian defensive positions are less dense than the initial defensive layer through which the armed forces advanced.

Shtupun and Tarnavskyi said that the AFU are placing more equipment in these areas and moving more equipment and troops to the next russian defense echelon. At the same time, the officers admitted that the minefields would still pose a significant threat.

As Tarnavskyi noted, the AFU spent more time clearing mines than expected at the start of the counteroffensive. That consistent fire from russian artillery and aircraft forced the Ukrainian infantry to clear mines only at night.

Shtupun added that the heavy minefields forced the operations of the AFU to break through narrow paths - this is precisely the purpose of minefields according to the russian defense doctrine.

Thus, the Defense Forces may now have more freedom of maneuver in the tactical rear of a breached russian defensive line.

The Institute for the Study of War draws attention to the fact that the description of russian minefields given by Tarnavskyi can only apply to the area immediately adjacent to Robotyne, and the AFU may encounter very dense minefields in some regions of the following rows of russian defensive positions.

"Although the Ukrainian forces will certainly have to continue heavy fighting, Tarnavskyi characterized the Ukrainian forces that successfully broke through the most difficult russian defense," the publication says.

The Ukrainian military noted that the strength of the next series of russian defensive positions around Robotyne will most likely depend on the composition of enemy forces in the area.

As Tarnavskyi stated, the AFU in the Robotyne area are destroying russian units that provide cover for the retreating enemy troops, and russian troops are operating in defensive "areas", probably referring to strongholds, not a continuous line of defense.

Tarnavskyi also noted that the russian forces will sooner or later exhaust their best soldiers, giving the Armed Forces an incentive to attack more often. Shtupun optimistically added that the additional successes of the Defense Forces allow the AFU to send more personnel to destroy russian defenses in the western Zaporizhzhia Region.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the line of defense that the russians built in the south of Ukraine on the way to Crimea became one of the most fortified, but the Ukrainian military is already behind it. The second line of defense is not so strong, and it will be easier to take it.

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