The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) improved the forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine by 3.5 million tons to 21 million tons and corn - by 2.5 million tons to 27.5 million tons in the 2023/2024 marketing year (MY) (July 2023 - June 2024).
This is stated in the message of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UABC) association, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
At the same time, export volumes remain unchanged: wheat - 10.5 million tons, corn - 19.5 million tons.
Updated global forecasts predict a reduction in world wheat production by 3.3 million tons to 793.4 million tons due to a reduction in the EU (by 3 million tons to 135.0 million tons due to a reduction in production in Spain, Lithuania, and Romania), China (by 3 million tons to 137.0 million tons), Canada (by 2 million tons to 33 million tons due to drier conditions in the prairie provinces).
At the same time, this reduction will be partially offset by an increase in production volumes for Ukraine (by 3.5 million tons to 21.0 million tons) and Kazakhstan (by 1 million tons to 15.0 million tons).
World wheat exports are projected to be 2.2 million tons less than the previous forecast to 209.4 million tons due to reduced exports by Canada and the United States.
It is noted that forecasted world ending stocks for 2023/24 MY have been reduced by 0.9 million tons to 265.6 million tons, which is the lowest since 2015/16 MY.
According to updated forecasts, it is expected that the volume of corn production in the world will decrease by 11.0 million tons to 1,213.5 million tons due to a decrease in the USA (by 5.3 million tons to 383.8 million tons), the EU (by 3.7 million tons to 59.7 million tons), China (by 3 million tons to 277.0 million tons) and the Russian Federation, which was partially offset by growth in Ukraine (by 2.5 million tons to 27.5 million tons) and Canada (by 0.3 million tons to 15.3 million tons).
In world trade, in 2023/24 MY predicts a decrease in corn exports by 2.1 million tons to 196.2 million tons and ending stocks by 3 million tons to 201.3 million tons.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oil crops in 2023 to 76.7 million tons, which is 5% more than the figure for 2022.
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