Defense forces of Ukraine manage to achieve tactically significant successes in west of Zaporizhzhia Region - ISW

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noticed tactically significant successes of the Defense Forces in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia Region. This is stated in the daily analytical note posted on the portal of the department.

ISW analysts note that Ukrainian forces have achieved tactically significant successes in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia Region amid the continuation of counteroffensive operations in at least three sections of the front on August 11.

Geolocation data published on August 11 confirm that the Ukrainian troops reached the northern outskirts of Robotyne (10 km south of Orikhiv) in the west of the Zaporizhzhia Region, although the constancy and extent of these positions are currently unclear.

ISW recalls that Ukrainian troops have been conducting regular ground attacks in the direction of Robotyne for several weeks as part of operations aimed at weakening the Russian defense.

According to the report, the ability of the Defense Forces to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne, on the defense of which Russian troops spent significant efforts, time and resources, remains significant, even if Ukrainian achievements are currently limited.

Geolocation footage published on August 11 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced in Urozhaine (9 km south of Velyka Novosilka) along the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

According to experts, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations seem to force the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in the west of the Zaporizhzhia Region. This indicates that Ukrainian efforts there can significantly weaken the Russian defense.

Experts also point out that the Russian practice of lateral redeployment in key areas of the front is likely to further weaken the Russian defensive lines in general, since operations on both sides consolidate Russian units in certain areas of the front.

These lateral reinforcements are likely to disrupt Russian offensive and defensive operations in the sectors from which they came, and threaten the rapid degradation of forces that the Russian military uses as reinforcements.

Besides, it is noted that at the moment Russia does not seem to have significant available forces that it could attract for reinforcements, without compromising other sectors of the front.

Ukrainian counter-offensive operations have dragged elite Russian formations and units into the Bakhmut area and continue to hold them there.

Russian troops also used a significant number of forces for local offensive operations in the area of ​ ​ Kupiansk and Svatove, which are also aimed at pulling Ukrainian troops from the areas of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

“Even if the Russian command determines to end localized offensive pushes in these areas it would likely take some time for Russian forces to lower the tempo of their operations and withdraw forces for lateral redeployments without opening up areas of the front to successful Ukrainian counterattacks,”

The limited Russian lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division from the left bank of Kherson Region in June appears to have set conditions that allowed Ukrainian forces to more freely operate in the area, and Ukrainian forces will likely similarly exploit weakened Russian groupings in other areas of the front where they are actively conducting offensive operations in the event of further Russian movement,” the review said.

On the other hand, analysts say, Ukrainian troops have reserves that allow them to rotate units instead of relying on redeployment of units that conduct defensive and offensive operations to other areas of the front without rest.

In their opinion, Ukrainian troops can probably maintain the necessary combat potential necessary to continue the degradation of Russian forces defending in the south of Ukraine and the Bakhmut area, while simultaneously deterring the Russian advance along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

And the redeployment of Russian troops in the lateral direction will probably increase the likelihood that the Russians will be forced to retreat to prepared defensive positions without significant support in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

"The further degradation of defending Russian forces thus creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive," the experts conclude.

Key Takeaways of the ISW of August 11:

• Ukrainian forces made tactically significant advances in western Zaporizhia Region and reached the outskirts of Robotyne amid continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11.
• Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Region, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses.
• Russia’s necessary practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front.
• The further degradation of defending Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.
• Russian forces appear to be intensifying offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk, likely to draw Ukrainian forces away from more operationally significant areas of the front.
• Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes in Ukraine on August 11 and targeted a Ukrainian airfield for the second time in the last week.
• Russian sources claimed that the Wagner Group appears to be maintaining a presence at its facilities in Belarus, though the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russian remains unclear.
• The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is struggling with significant personnel shortages, especially in occupied territories in Ukraine, amid a broader power shift between other Russian internal security organs.
• The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are likely attempting to deflect blame for Ukrainian shelling in Russian border areas onto mid-level officers.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Region area on August 11 and advanced in some areas.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11 and advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Region border area and in western Zaporizhia Region.
• The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) has begun producing “Geran-2” drones, a modified version of the Iranian-produced Shahed-131/136 drone that will likely enable Russia‘s ability to maintain or potentially increase the frequency of Russia’s drone strikes on Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to make the upcoming regional elections in the Russian occupied territories appear to be fair and competitive.

To request a correction, please send an email.