The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oil crops by 7.8 million tons to 76.8 million tons in 2023.
This is stated in the message of UGA, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
In 2022, according to UGA, the harvest reached 73.8 million tons of grain and oil crops.
According to the report, the increase in this year's crop forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields, although the planted area is 2.2 million hectares smaller than last year.
Exports from Ukraine under these conditions in the new season of 2023/2024 can potentially amount to almost 48 million tons.
In the last season (which ended on June 30, 2023), according to UGA, exports reached 58 million tons, while Ukraine's revenue from the export of grain, oilseeds and oil reached about USD 20 billion in the last marketing year.
At the same time, UGA emphasizes that, in general, the export of grain and oilseeds in the new 2023/2024 marketing year (MY) can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports, as well as under the condition of improving and reducing the cost of logistics of alternative routes, in particular the Danube way.
The estimate of the wheat harvest in 2023 has improved - from 17.9 to 20.2 million tons (in 2022 it was 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 - a record-breaking 33 million tons).
At the same time, the potential export of wheat in 2023/2024 MY may amount to about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, transitional balances amounted to 4.3 million tons.
The estimate of the barley harvest in 2023 has also increased - from 4.4 to 5.2 million tons (in 2021 - 10.1 million tons, and in 2022 - 5.8 million tons), and potential exports in 2023/2024 MY can be expected at equal to 2.6 million tons. Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved slightly from 24.2 to 26.9 million tons (in 2021 - 37.6 million tons, in 2022 - 27.3 million tons), while exports may amount to about 22 million tons.
The sunflower harvest in 2023 is also expected to be higher - the estimate has increased from 12.7 to 13.9 million tons (in 2021 - 16.9 million tons, in 2022 - 11.1 million tons), and potential exports may amount to 1.1 million tons.
Accordingly, the processing of sunflower for oil can reach 12.5 million tons.
The association estimates the rapeseed harvest in 2023 to be 3.9 million tons, while the export in 2023/2024 MY is expected at the level of 3.7 million tons.
The estimate of the soybean harvest increased from 4.4 to 4.8 million tons, and the potential export of 2023/2024 MY may reach 3.3 million tons.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, UGA proposes to the European Commission to increase exports by "ways of solidarity" by 1-1.5 million tons per month.
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