In July, business cautiously assessed the performance of its enterprises in the near future after three consecutive months of positive expectations.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates every month, excluding the forced break in March - May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The review of pricing for enterprises in the electricity market, the return to pre-war taxation of fuel prices, the cessation of the "grain corridor", increased shelling of infrastructure facilities, as well as a significant shortage of qualified personnel adversely affected the expectations of respondents.
In July 2023, the BAEI fell below the neutral level (50 points) to 48.8 compared to 50.8 in June.
Industrial enterprises, after four months of optimistic estimates, expect their economic results to deteriorate: the sectoral index was 48.2 in July compared to 51.0 in June.
Respondents forecast lower volumes of new export orders, and also downgraded estimates for volumes of work-in-progress (backlogs) and inventories of raw materials.
At the same time, a slight increase in the volume of manufactured products is expected, and the volume of new orders is forecast at the level of the previous month.
For the third month in a row, construction companies maintained positive assessments of the results of their activities thanks to the revival of activity in the construction of roads, bridges, tunnels and pipelines, as well as the seasonal factor: the sectoral index in July was 51.3 (in June - 58.6).
Builders continue to expect growth in construction volumes, new orders, and purchases of raw materials and materials, albeit at much lower rates.
Contractor services remained highly rated, and their availability remained at the previous month's level.
For the fifth month in a row, trade enterprises positively assessed the results of their activities thanks to the saturation of the market with goods and the slowdown in inflation rates: the sectoral index in July was 51.6 compared to 52.5 in June.
Respondents continued to expect an increase in the volume of purchases of goods for sale, a faster increase in the value of goods purchased for sale against the background of rising prices of suppliers, and also continued to expect a decrease in trade margins.
Businesses in the service sector maintained the most subdued estimates of their economic prospects among other sectors of the economy, given the blockage of the "grain corridor", rising fuel prices and reduced demand due to the weak solvency of the population: the sectoral index was 47.3, compared with 48.9 in June.
For the first time since April of this year, respondents were negative about the volume of services provided.
They also predicted a reduction in the volume of new orders for services, instead they expected a slight increase in the volume of services in the process of execution.
Most of the surveyed respondents are determined to increase the prices of their own products and services as a result of the increase in purchase prices.
Employment estimates are subdued.
Only trade enterprises expect an increase in staff.
Managers of construction enterprises do not expect any changes. On the other hand, industry and service sector respondents predict a decrease in the number of employees.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from July 5 to 24, 2023.
490 enterprises took part in the survey.
Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.9% were industrial companies, 28.2% were in the service sector, 22.2% were in trade, and 4.7% were in construction; 33.7% of respondents are large enterprises, 29.0% are medium-sized enterprises, and 37.3% are small enterprises.
31.8% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.0% - only export operations, 16.7% - only import operations, 42.4% - do not carry out external economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
On the basis of respondents' answers, monthly indexes of expectations of business activity are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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