The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) improved the corn harvest forecast in Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 25 million tons in the 2023/2024 marketing year (July 2023 - June 2024).
This follows from a statement by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club association, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"According to the updated forecasts of the USDA, in the marketing year of 2023/24, Ukraine's indicators of wheat production remain unchanged: production - 17.5 million tons, export - 10.5 million tons. As for corn, an increase of 0.5 million tons is expected for each indicator. Thus, the forecasted production of corn will be 25 million tons, export - 19.5 million tons," the message says.
According to the report, global wheat production is expected to decrease by 3.5 million tons to 796.7 million tons.
At the same time, production decreases primarily in the EU - by 2.5 million tons to 138 million tons, Argentina - by 2 million tons to 17.5 million tons, and Canada - by 2 million tons to 35.0 million tons, which is only partially compensated by growth made in the U.S. (by 2 million tons to 47.3 million tons) and Pakistan.
"EU production declines as continued dry weather hampers crop prospects primarily in Germany, Spain, France, and Italy. The forecast for wheat production in Argentina has been lowered based on revised government acreage estimates. The report said that dry conditions in some areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan are reducing production in Canada," the report said.
The world volume of wheat exports is predicted to be 1 million tons less compared to the previous forecast of 211.6 million tons, as exports from Argentina (by 1.5 million tons to 12.0 million tons) and Canada (by 1 million tons to 26.5 million tons), which is only partially compensated by the increase in exports from Russia (by 1 million tons to 47.5 million tons).
The forecast for world consumption rises by 3.3 million tons to 799.5 million tons, while the forecast for world wheat ending stocks for the financial year of 2023/24 decreases by 4.2 million tons to 266.5 million tons.
World corn production is also expected to increase by 1.7 million tons to 1,224.5 million tons due to increased U.S. production (1.4 million tons to 389.2 million tons), Ukraine, and Canada (0.7 million tons to 15 million tons).
At the same time, there will be a reduction in production volumes in the EU (by 0.9 million tons to 63.4 million tons).
Forecast world corn ending stocks are expected at 314.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from last month's forecast.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in 2023, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food Forecasts a 10-15% decrease in the yield of grain and leguminous crops year over year to 46 million tons.
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