Military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Kremlin's statements about the transfer of nuclear warheads are a confirmation of the de facto military control of the terrorist state of Russia over Belarus. The ISW review notes that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensives in at least three areas of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains.
Analysts indicate that the Kremlin has said that Russia has begun transferring tactical nuclear warheads (under Russian control) to Belarus in accordance with previously announced plans.
According to ISW's preliminary assessment, Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is part of a long-term effort to consolidate Russia's de facto military control over Belarus and is unlikely to signal any Russian escalation.
Analysts did not miss the fact that several current and former Russian municipal officials signed an open letter calling on Russian troops to return to the "universally recognized" borders of the Russian Federation due to the crisis caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka HEPP dam.
In particular, officials from Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts, signed a document stating that the destruction of the Kakhovka HEPP dam will affect the planet's ecosystem, health issues and the economy for many decades.
The review emphasizes that Russian officials not associated with the Kremlin can use public concern about the environmental and humanitarian situation related to the destruction of the Kakhovka HEPP dam to express opposition to the war in Ukraine without directly criticizing the military actions themselves, because the Kremlin created conditions for "suppression of anti-war dissent".
Key ISW conclusions for June 16:
- Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive actions on at least three areas of the front on June 16 and, according to reports, achieved some success.
- Russian troops shelled Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih with cruise missiles and kamikaze drones on June 15-16.
- The heads of state of seven African countries met with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy on June 16 in Kyiv as part of a joint peace mission.
- The Kremlin has announced that Russia has begun transferring tactical nuclear warheads (under Russian control) to Belarus in accordance with previously announced plans.
- Some current and former Russian officials have signed an open letter calling on Russian troops to return to "universally recognized" Russian borders due to the crisis caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka HEPP dam.
- Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian and Ukrainian troops conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut and along the Avdiyivka-Donetsk line.
- Ukrainian troops continued ground shelling in the Vuhledar area.
- Defense forces continued counteroffensive operations near the administrative border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions and, according to reports, achieved success in this area.
- The Ministry of Defense of Russia is trying to materially stimulate the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment, which will probably contribute to the intensification of recruitment efforts.
- The Russian occupation authorities are trying to strengthen the Russian land lines of communication between Russia and occupied Ukraine.
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