Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report on the successes of the Defense Forces near Bakhmut due to local counterattacks. According to experts from the Washington Institute, as of May 12, Ukrainian forces made progress northwest of Bakhmut in local counterattacks.
The report added that several Russian sources warned that Ukrainian troops could try to surround the Wagner PMC within Bakhmut.
At the same time, the founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, emphasized that Ukrainian troops were approaching Berkhivka, and said that Ukraine now occupies positions within 500 m from the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.
The so-called military bloggers of the Russian Federation also reported that Ukrainian troops counterattack in the direction of Khromove (3 km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6 km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (6 km southwest of Bakhmut).
One of them claimed that the situation southwest of Bakhmut in the Maiorsk area stabilized after Ukrainian attacks on the positions of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic.
And the Ministry of Defense (MoD) of Russia rejected statements by other sources in the Russian Federation about the advance of Ukrainian troops and stated that units of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade (self-proclaimed LPR - ed.) And the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet - ed.) repelled all attacks in the Berkhivka area," taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhivske reservoir."
So-called military Russian bloggers and other famous persons in the pro-military information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and concern.
Many of these military bloggers have argued that the Ukrainian actions around Bakhmut mark the official start of the anticipated spring counter-offensive, and have suggested where the main Defense Force efforts will be concentrated.
Several prominent Russian figures, however, called for caution and restraint in responding to the counteroffensive, suggesting that some bloggers advocate the application of certain lessons that they learned from the collapse of the information space during the successful Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives of Ukraine.
Ukrainian and American officials have said Ukrainian forces have yet to launch a planned counteroffensive.
Key Takeaways for May 12 are:
- Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12.
- Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety.
- Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive.
- Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11.
- Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” held a press conference on May 12 to discuss its discontent with the current Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine.
- U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, contradicting its proclaimed neutral stance on the war in Ukraine.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
- Russian forces continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
- Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
- Russian forces continue to recruit convicts and establish volunteer battalions as a part of crypto-mobilization efforts.
- Senior Russian officials are claiming that they are taking active measures to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukraine.
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