Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point to a shift in the priorities of the Ministry of Defense of the aggressor country of Russia: the Russians are changing the attack on Bakhmut to preparations for deterring the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. This is stated in an analytical note from the American ISW.
Experts note that the Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have changed the priority of the attack on Bakhmut in favor of preparing for defense against an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the Wagner group and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position.
Prigozhin released a series of videos on May 4 and 5, announcing that the Wagner would withdraw from Bakhmut on May 10 if it did not receive the necessary supplies, and launched particularly harsh and emotional attacks against the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and leadership of the Ministry of Defense of Russia as a whole.
The report indicates that despite the shift in the priorities of the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces, Wagner did not stop trying to completely capture Bakhmut.
According to the Institute's analysts, the long-term holding of Wagner in Bakhmut is not consistent with the general slowdown in the pace of Russian offensive operations in other parts of Ukraine, as regular Russian troops seem to be largely shifting their focus to preparing for the long-awaited counteroffensive from Ukraine.
With the exception of very limited and localized attacks in the Kreminna district and near Donetsk, Russian forces have largely ceased offensive operations throughout the entire hostilities territory, likely signifying a transition to the defensive.
"An operationally justified decision for the Russian Defense Ministry would be to start holding and stockpiling ammunition and supplies in order to prepare for any Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, and Prigozhin's desperate statements indicate that the Russian Defense Ministry is most likely doing just that," stated in the review.
The Russian occupation authorities announced the forced relocation of 70,000 civilians in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Region to the deep rear under the guise of evacuation. Yevhen Balytskyi, the occupation head of the Zaporizhzhia Region, and Andrii Kozenko, the so-called deputy head, announced on May 5 that the Russian authorities would carry out a partial evacuation of 70,000 Ukrainian civilians.
Experts conclude that the location of these settlements so far from the current front line indicates that Russian troops plan to conduct a controlled combat withdrawal from their current positions to a prepared defense line, rather than trying to hold the current contact line in the event of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The main conclusions of the ISW for May 5:
- The Russian Ministry of Defense seems to have changed the priority of the attack on Bakhmut in favor of preparing for defense against the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, which puts the Wagner group and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position.
- Wagner's prolonged hold in Bakhmut is inconsistent with a general slowdown in Russian operations in other parts of Ukraine, as regular Russian forces are likely to be largely shifting their focus in preparation for the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- The recently dismissed former Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics, Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, is reportedly serving as the deputy commander of the Wagner group, likely to maintain access to Russian military supplies.
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the newly appointed Deputy Minister of Logistics Alexei Kuzmenkov to control the supply of weapons and equipment to Russian troops in Ukraine.
- The Russian occupation authorities announced the forced relocation of 70,000 civilians in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Region to areas deep in the Russian rear, under the guise of evacuation.
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia proposed a bill designed to appeal to growing anti-migrant sentiments in Russia and to support the efforts of the Russian military to recruit migrants.
- The head of the Human Rights Council of the Russian Federation, Valery Fadeev, said that the Russian authorities should regulate Telegram channels in the same way as they censor state media.
- Russian troops carried out ground attacks near Kreminna and Avdiyivka, and also achieved minor successes in Bakhmut.
- Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Bakhmut.
- The FSB of Russia announced that it prevented an attempt to kill a Ukrainian MP at (Zaporizhzhia NPP) on May 5.
- The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, continues to make efforts to secure the favor of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin.
- The Russian occupation authorities continue measures to strengthen social control in the occupied territories.
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