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Actual Pace Of Price Growth In March Was Lower Than Trajectory Of NBU Forecast

The actual pace of price growth in March was lower than the trajectory of the National Bank's forecast.

This is stated in the message of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian News Agency reports.

The rapid decline in inflation is associated with a significant supply of food and fuel, a better situation in the energy sector, improved inflation expectations and a favorable situation in the cash segment of the foreign exchange market.

At the same time, the slowdown in inflation is also largely explained by the effects of the comparison base of the previous year.

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The increase in the price of processed food products slowed down significantly (to 23.5% y/y).

As in February, this was largely due to a better-than-expected energy situation.

Thus, the prices of bread and flour products, confectionery, soft drinks and canned goods grew at a lower rate.

In conditions of sufficient supply on the domestic market and a decrease in export prices, the cost of dairy products and sunflowerseed oil grew more slowly.

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The improvement of exchange rate expectations, in particular against the background of the strengthening of the hryvnia cash rate, contributed to the decrease in the rate of increase in the price of imported products.

The growth of prices for non-food products also slowed down significantly (18.8% y/y).

On the one hand, such dynamics were expected due to the effects of the comparison base of the previous year.

On the other hand, prices for personal care products, clothing and footwear, electronics, pharmaceutical products, furniture, household appliances, and cars grew more slowly due to the improvement of exchange rate and inflationary expectations.

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The rate of growth of the cost of services almost did not change (15.4% y/y).

Tourist services, services of public catering establishments and hotels, as well as rent increased in price more slowly.

This may be due to improved energy supply, weaker demand, and high base-of-comparison effects created by large-scale population movements at the onset of a full-scale invasion.

Instead, the cost of medical, insurance, veterinary, telecommunications and beauty salon services grew faster - under the influence of increased costs and less supply against the background of a gradual recovery in demand.

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Also, considering the maintenance of high demand, the price of the services of electricians and plumbers accelerated.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in March 2023, consumer prices rose by 1.5%.

In January-March 2023, inflation was 3.0%.

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