Ukraine may face a demographic crisis in the coming years. Slovo i Dilo reported this with reference to the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Rising deaths due to war, declining birth rates and population migration could cause the population to shrink to 35 million people by 2030 - and that's still an optimistic estimate. The director of the Institute, Ella Libanova, predicts a catastrophic fall in the birth rate next year.
To restore generations for every 10 women, there should be 22-23 children. In Ukraine, in 2021, 10 women gave birth to only 11 children, and in 2023, it is expected that 10 women on average will have only 7 children.
The post-war baby boom, as, for example, after World War II, should not be expected either: according to Libanova, now children are born more "consciously," given the socio-economic conditions.
The rapid decline in the population of Ukraine and its aging was predicted even before the full-scale war.
As of 1992, 51.7 million people lived in Ukraine. The majority of the population were citizens aged 18-59 years - 29.9 million people. Ukrainians aged 60 and over were 9.7 million, under the age of 17 - 13.1 million.
In ten years, by 2002, the population fell to 48 million 240,900 people. At the same time, the number of citizens under the age of 17 and over 60 years was almost identical (with an advantage in favor of the older age group) - about 10 million people.
By 2006, the population crossed another mark - it dropped below 47 million people. Ukrainians under the age of 17 years were 8.8 million, over 60 years - 9.5 million.
There were less than 46 million Ukrainians in 2009. There were still more citizens over the age of 60 than minors.
As of 2014, 45 million 245,900 people lived in Ukraine. In 2015, excluding the temporarily occupied Crimea and Donbas, the population was 42 million 759,700 people.
By 2019, the population of Ukraine decreased to 41 million 983,600 people - again excluding the occupied territories. At that time, there were 7.6 million Ukrainians under the age of 17 and 9.8 million - over 60.
In 2021, there are even fewer Ukrainians - 41 million 418,700 people.
As of the beginning of this year, excluding data from the occupied territories, 40.9 million people lived in Ukraine - since 1992, the population has decreased by 20.7%.
There were 7.3 million Ukrainians under the age of 17 years (44.1% less than in 1992), at the age of 18-59 years - 23.5 million (-18.6%). At the same time, the number of citizens over 60 years old increased by 4.6% - 10.1 million.
Recall that in November 2021, the UN stated that the population of Ukraine is declining at one of the fastest rates in the world. By 2050, the number of Ukrainians may decrease to 35 million.
Scientists at the National Academy of Sciences predicted that by the end of the 21st century the population of Ukraine would be reduced to 22 million.
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