Russians Preparing To Resume Offensive On Vuhledar - ISW Analysts

The Russians are preparing to resume their offensive on Vuhledar of the Donetsk Region.

Analysts of the ISW (Institute for the Study of War) note this in the statement, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

Analysts recalled that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the commander of the Eastern Military District (EMD), Colonel General Rustam Muradov, to capture Vuhledar at any cost to appease widespread criticism of the Ministry of Defense about the lack of progress and heavy losses in the Vuhledar area.

"Recently, Shoigu visited Muradov in the west of the Donetsk Region, probably with the aim of assessing the possibility of an offensive on Vuhledar, as well as Muradov's further role as the commander of the special military operation (SMO)," analysts noted.

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, Muradov will need new reserves of manpower and equipment to carry out Shoigu's instructions, and the replacement of the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade with the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade will not provide the necessary reinforcement of Russian forces.

According to analysts' estimates, Russian troops will need to advance 24 km from the current front line around Vuhledar to support operations in other parts of the Donetsk Region, and such rate of advance Russian troops have not achieved since the first months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"Resuming expensive offensive operations around Vuhledar would be a misallocation of already depleted forces to increasingly pointless operational efforts, but Muradov's personal motivation may prompt Russian troops in this area to resume offensive operations after all," the institute added.

The ISW reminded that on March 8, social networks published an appeal by the personnel of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District to the Russian military command with a request to provide more artillery ammunition before they replace the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet under Vuhledar and will conduct ground attacks in this area.

The 155th Marine Brigade is said to have suffered catastrophic losses during the culminating three-week February offensive to capture Vuhledar.

Analysts believe Russian troops are likely to rotate the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to replace a badly degraded unit, hoping to resume the offensive near Vuhledar.

At the same time, ISW experts do not believe that with the help of rotation, the Russians will be able to increase their offensive potential in this direction.

"The 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is unlikely to be able to achieve tactical successes near Vuhledar, which the 155th Marine Brigade, the 40th Marine Brigade and other Russian units could not achieve during several months of preparation for the start of the offensive in this direction. Degradation of other units in the area, significant losses of equipment, as well as persistent problems with artillery, are likely to prevent Russian troops from gaining significant tactical advantages if they decide to resume offensive actions in the area," the institute's report says.

ISW believes that internal processes in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation may be the reason for the potential resumption of offensive actions near Vuhledar.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, Shoigu was tasked with capturing Vuhledar at any cost.

The Vuhledar offensive became the largest tank battle of the war, Russia was defeated in it.

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