In February, business significantly softened the negative assessments of its own economic activity.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) calculates every month, excluding the forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Economic activity is gradually recovering in all sectors except construction.
The main obstacles to the recovery of enterprises are the shortage of electricity, the increase in the cost of manufactured products due to the purchase of alternative sources of energy and fuel, and low consumer demand.
In February 2023, the BAEI rose to 45.0 from 37.5 in January 2023.
Industrial enterprises eased pessimistic expectations about their own economic prospects due to the gradual restoration of electricity supply and the purchase of alternative energy sources: the sectoral index rose to 47.2 in February from 40.6 in January 2023.
Respondents expect an increase in the volume of manufactured products (for the first time since October 2022) and the volume of new export orders for products (for the first time since February 2022).
At the same time, expectations regarding the volumes of new orders for products improved significantly, although they still remain negative.
Negative expectations regarding the activity of the trade enterprise were significantly softened thanks to the gradual adaptation to power outages, the adjustment of supply chains of goods, as well as the seasonal factor: the sectoral index rose to 47.0 in February from 33.9 in January.
Respondents significantly improved their expectations regarding turnover, volumes of purchases of goods for sale and volumes of stocks/remains of goods for sale.
At the same time, estimates regarding the decrease in trade margin have weakened.
Businesses in the service sector eased slightly, but maintained pessimistic views on their economic performance, given the decline in purchasing power of the population, rising tariffs and problems with logistics: the sectoral index stood at 43.2, compared with 37.2 in January.
Respondents significantly reduced their negative expectations regarding the volume of services provided, new orders, as well as the volume of services in progress.
Construction enterprises had the most restrained estimates of their performance among other sectors, taking into account the seasonal factor, low financial capacity of consumers and interruptions in the supply of electricity: the sectoral index was 33.5 (in January - 34.5).
Respondents increased their negative expectations regarding the volume of completed construction works and at the same time expect a decrease in the volume of new orders, as well as the volume of purchases of raw materials and materials.
Most of the enterprises participating in the surveys hope for lower rates of growth in purchase prices and contractor prices, as well as prices and tariffs for their own products/services.
Enterprises of all sectors involved in the survey plan to reduce the total number of workers in production.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from February 2 to 21, 2023.
458 enterprises took part in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 46.7% are industrial companies, 27.9% are in the service sector, 20.7% are in trade, and 4.6% are in construction; 32.8% of respondents are large enterprises, 29.9% are medium-sized enterprises, and 37.3% are small enterprises.
33.0% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 10.0% - only export operations, 15.5% - only import operations, 41.5% - do not carry out external economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - company managers, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy.
On the basis of respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indexes are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month.
The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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