In its daily issue of analytical update, experts from the Institute for the Study of War suggest that the Russian authorities did not comment on the anniversary of their invasion of Ukraine due to the fact that they could not achieve any of their stated goals.
ISW believes that the Kremlin has not commented on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, probably because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated goals and has not had significant territorial achievements since July 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his administration have not made any statements on this anniversary, although they have repeatedly spoken in public over the past three days.
Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made provocative statements that Russia would win the war, and added that in order to achieve its goals, it is vital for Russia to "push the borders that threaten (Russia) as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland."
"Medvedev's statements highlight the fact that the Kremlin continues to pursue its unrealistic maximalist goals, even though it cannot offer the Russian people any meaningful success after a year of costly war in Ukraine," the institute said in a report.
Analysts suggest that Russian officials are likely seeking support from Chinese defense manufacturers because of the restrictions that international sanctions regimes have placed on the Russian defense industry.
Experts remind that the UK government and the U.S. Treasury Department on February 24 announced new sanctions and measures to ban exports aimed at industries, organizations and individuals supporting the Russian military capabilities.
In addition, according to the report, the Western governments made various statements on the provision of military assistance to Ukraine on February 24.
Experts also note that the Kremlin has strengthened information preparations for a possible operation under a foreign flag in Russian-occupied Transnistria (Moldova).
Some Russian military bloggers have intensified the Kremlin's rhetoric, arguing that the situation along the Ukrainian-Transnistrian border is becoming more tense, experts say. And they remind that on February 24, Moldovan officials continued to deny Russian statements, characterizing them as "aggressive disinformation" or "psychological operation."
Key Takeaways of the ISW
The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and has not made significant territorial gains since July 2022.
A Russian source capitalized on China's release of a 12-point peace plan to inaccurately portray China as supporting Russia's war in Ukraine.
US intelligence reportedly continues to assess that China is seriously considering sending lethal aid to Russia amid continued pressure from Western sanctions regimes on Russia's defense industrial base.
Western governments made a variety of statements on the provision of military aid to Ukraine on February 24.
The Kremlin escalated its information condition-setting for a possible false-flag operation in occupied Transnistria, Moldova.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.
Russian sources confirmed that Russian forces have split certain Airborne (VDV) force formations across at least two axes of advance.
Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut and continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.
Ukrainian officials suggested that Russian forces may feel insecure in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
Russian authorities continue measures to expand the capacity of Russian peacekeepers.
Russian sources likely attempted to shift the blame for scandals associated with Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) commanders to the conventional Russian military.
Ukrainian partisans likely blew up a railway segment near Poshtove, Crimea.
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