Russia Unable To Conduct Several Major Offensive Operations - ISW

The Russian Federation has not demonstrated the ability to conduct several major offensive operations necessary to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk Region and take the city of Zaporizhzhia.

This is stated in the daily report published on the website of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the ISW, the concentration of Russian troops of 30,000 troops in the Mariupol area is not enough to attack Zaporizhzhia, while continuing offensive operations to encircle Bakhmut in the Donetsk Region and starting a new major blow in the Luhansk Region.

It is noted that the Russian conventional forces, reserves and forces of the PMC Wagner have already attracted tens of thousands of troops to the effort to capture Bakhmut, reportedly suffering many thousands of losses during this attempt.

In addition, experts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that it is unlikely that Russian offensive operations will be aimed at the city of Zaporizhzhia, as the Russian military continues to prepare for an offensive in the west of the Luhansk Region.

The mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andriushchenko noted the Russian forces reportedly have 30,000 troops in the greater Mariupol area. ISW continues to assess that Russia is concentrating troops and military equipment to stage a decisive offensive on the western Luhansk Region and Bakhmut areas, the report said.

It is reported that the ISW continues to monitor the movement of military equipment and elite units by Russia, as well as the preparation of logistics in the occupied Luhansk Region, which confirms the forecasts of the West, Ukraine and Russia regarding the offensive in the western part of the Luhansk Region on Bakhmut.

In addition, the report noted that the Ukrainian military reports that Russian troops did not assemble a powerful enough strike group to attack in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in the Luhansk Region, the Russian military is looking for weak points of Ukrainian defense, conducting an analysis. In the Svatove-Kreminna direction, the number of cases of Russian shelling and attacks increased.

Earlier, the ISW noted that Russia does not leave plans to completely capture the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions, but the implementation of this plan will take from 6 to 12 months and will require a large-scale offensive.

Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki believes that Russian President Putin will attack Kyiv again because he wants to prove to his people that he is a long-term player who never gives up.

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