The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the planned Russian offensive will take place in the Luhansk Region or in the Vuhledar area in the Donetsk Region.
This is stated in the text of another analytical note posted on the ISW portal.
It is noted that Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive (to regain the initiative on the battlefield), which may begin as early as February or March 2023.
According to military experts, recent limited Russian ground attacks in the Zaporizhzhia Region may be aimed at scattering Ukrainian forces and creating conditions for an offensive in the Luhansk Region.
In addition, Russia is redeploying parts of the 2nd motorized rifle division from Belarus to the Luhansk Region.
This, according to analysts, indicates that the planned Russian offensive in question is most likely aimed at the Luhansk Region, although it could also take place in the Vuhledar area west of Donetsk.
ISW considers it extremely unlikely that this new offensive will be aimed at the north of Ukraine from the side of Belarus.
The report also indicates that the Kremlin has confirmed that Putin is carrying out preventive pardons for those convicted of participating in Russia's war in Ukraine.
According to ISW's preliminary assessment, these preemptive presidential pardons may encourage further recruitment in the colonies and likely allow the Wagner private military company to operate with greater impunity on the battlefield.
Analysts also note that an investigation by a Russian opposition publication confirmed that the Russian authorities are deporting children from the occupied Kherson Region to the occupied Crimea.
The institute's report also mentions that Russian officials denied the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the explosions at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on January 26.
The Russian military command is probably trying to limit the coverage of frontline events by media bloggers in order to regain control over the Russian information space on the eve of a possible new offensive.
It, analysts suggest, may also be trying to revive its previous failed attempts at censorship targeting a community of critical military bloggers.
According to experts, efforts by the Russian Ministry of Defense to limit the access of military bloggers to the army will not stop all criticism of these bloggers on the Internet.
"The Russian Defense Ministry's tactics of suppressing information from the front will create a vacuum in the information space, which will be filled by Wagner-related military bloggers who are hostile to the Russian Defense Ministry. Russia's use of non-traditional military formations will also undermine the effectiveness of regulation," the institute's report concludes.
Key ISW findings for January 27 are:
- Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to intercept the initiative, which could begin as early as February or March 2023.
- The Kremlin confirmed that Putin is granting preventive pardons to convicts involved in Russian operations in Ukraine.
- An investigation by a Russian opposition publication confirmed that the Russian authorities are deporting children from the occupied Kherson Region to the occupied Crimea.
- Russian officials denied the reports of explosions near the Zaporizhzhia NPP on January 26.
- The Russian military command is probably trying to limit coverage by military bloggers of events at the front in order to regain control over the Russian information space on the eve of a new offensive. These restrictions, if planned, are likely part of efforts by the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces.
- Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on January 26 and 27.
- The occupiers continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, on the western outskirts of Donetsk and in the west of the Donetsk Region.
- Russian sources do not report that Russian troops continued local offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia Region on January 27.
- Officials of the Russian Federation stated that the draft age will not change during the upcoming spring draft of 2023.
- The Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify efforts to integrate the occupied territories into Russian legal and administrative structures.
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