The National Bank expects a slight increase in real GDP in 2023 - by 0.3%.
This is stated in the NBU message, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
It is noted that as a result of energy terror from Russia, the decline in GDP of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2022 deepened (up to 35% in annual terms).
Businesses in trade and the service sector have adapted to power outages quite quickly.
The impact on the agricultural sector was also limited.
Instead, industry, in particular metallurgy, suffered significant losses of output.
At the same time, due to the best results of the 3rd quarter and the rapid adaptation of part of the business and population to new conditions, the estimate of real GDP fall in 2022 was improved to 30.3%.
The National Bank expects a slight increase in real GDP in 2023 - by 0.3%.
The deterioration of the forecast compared to October estimates is primarily due to the consequences of energy terror, as well as a revision of the main assumption about the duration of safety risks.
The latter will result in the postponement of full unlocking of ports, which will restrain the potential for recovery of exports.
In addition, due to the accumulation of problems associated with sowing and harvesting campaigns in a war, the National Bank estimates that crops will be smaller this year.
At the same time, the forecast suggests that significant additional destruction of energy infrastructure will be avoided during 2023, and business and authorities will take effective measures to level the consequences of already destroyed capacities.
Reducing security risks, along with the resumption of full-fledged operation of ports, an increase in harvests, gradual restoration of production capacities, the establishment of logistics and the revival of domestic demand, including thanks to the return of forced migrants, will contribute to the growth of the economy in 2024-2025.
Soft fiscal policy will also play a significant role in the future.
Thanks to all these factors, in 2024, Ukraine's real GDP will grow by 4.1%, and in 2025 economic growth will accelerate to 6.4%.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the National Bank predicts a slowdown in inflation to 18.7% in 2023.
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.