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ISW Analysts Believe Putin Trying To Prevent Prigozhin From Raising His Status

Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably taking measures to undermine the efforts of the head of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin to increase his status in Russian society. This is stated in the text of the daily report from analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Researchers from the ISW believe that Putin is trying to prepare personnel of bloggers and public figures loyal to himself and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

The ISW recalled that United Russia Party Central Executive Committee Head Alexander Sidyakin, United Russia State Duma parliamentarian Artyom Turovyi, and Donetsk People Republic Head and Putin ally Denis Pushilin met with several milbloggers on January 13. These senior Putin allies presented a group of over 10 milbloggers – including Alexander Sladkov and a journalist who works for Wargonzo – an official certificate of thanks signed by Secretary of the General Council of the United Russia Party Andrey Turchak.

“This is the latest event in a string of Kremlin efforts to cultivate ties with select milbloggers. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin undertook efforts to co-opt Sladkov, Wargonzo lead milblogger Semen Pegov, and other milbloggers who were willing to sell out in exchange for political prestige. Putin may seek to cultivate ties with these Kremlin-pliant milbloggers to marshal their media reach against the Prigozhin-aligned milbloggers’ efforts to promote Prigozhin and damage Putin’s reputation in the Russian information space,” the ISW report said.

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Key Takeaways

- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar on the evening of January 12.

- The MoD’s initial announcement (which did not mention the Wagner Group) sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space, forcing the MoD to issue a second announcement crediting Wagner.

- Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia.

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Putin may be taking measures to cultivate a cadre of milbloggers loyal to Putin and the Russian MoD to undermine Prigozhin’s effort to elevate himself.

- High-ranking Ukrainian officials continue to forecast an intensification of Ukrainian and Russian operations in the spring of 2023 and that a Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely.

- Russian officials’ responses to Russians who have fled abroad risks dividing the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist pro-war community even further.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered Russian occupation officials to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under medical relocation schemes.

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- Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.

- Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.

- Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russian forces seek to raise personnel numbers to two million by an unspecified date.

 - Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to divert Russian resources away from the frontline to rear areas in occupied territories.

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