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Russia's New Offensive Will Begin In April 2023 - German Media Citing Defense Ministry

Russia's New Offensive Will Begin In April 2023 - German Media Citing Defense Ministry

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An analysis by the German Ministry of Defense sees the possibility of a Russian counteroffensive in April 2023. Targeted missile strikes, including with drones, on Ukraine's critical infrastructure could be part of such a war strategy. This was reported by Kreiszeitung on Sunday, December 25.

According to the first scenario of the German Ministry of Defense, Russia may launch an attack on the Donbas, while Belarus will focus several thousand military on the border with Ukraine. In this case, the Ukrainian defenders would have to pull some of the forces to repel a possible invasion from the north. "It is likely, however, that Lukashenko will not intervene directly in the war, but will be forced to deploy his army for threatening gestures - domestic political pressure on the ruler seems too great. However, the purpose of the first scenario of the Russian offensive would be to completely take control of the Donbas," the publication writes.

According to the second possible scenario, the troops of the Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko may be decisive for the war, but so far such a possibility is considered very unlikely. The German Ministry of Defense believes that if Belarus goes to Kyiv under this scenario, Russian soldiers will attack the Donbas and may try to advance to the west of Ukraine in order to block the supply of weapons and force the Ukrainian government to capitulate.

The publication emphasizes that such a scenario is considered unlikely, because it requires general mobilization in Russia.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, researchers from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assess the repeated offensive of Russians from Belarusian territory as unlikely, but possible.

British military intelligence believes that there is a shortage of ammunition in Russia.