Economy 2024-02-15T04:57:07+02:00
Ukrainian news
Due To Russia’s Shelling Of Energy Infrastructure, GDP Fall In November May Be 41%, In 2022 - 33.2-33.5% - Eco

Due To Russia’s Shelling Of Energy Infrastructure, GDP Fall In November May Be 41%, In 2022 - 33.2-33.5% - Economy Ministry

GDP, GDP decline, GDP outlook, GDP Fall, GDP fall forecast

Due to shelling of Ukraine's energy infrastructure by Russia, the GDP drop in November may be 41%, at the end of the year the economy will shrink by 33.2% -33.5%.

This is stated in the message of the Ministry of Economy, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"Before the attacks on energy infrastructure in October, we predicted that the fall in GDP for the year will be about 32%, but after massive blows from the Russian Federation, we worsened the forecast for the fall in GDP to 33.2-33.5%," said First Deputy Minister of Economy Denys Kudin.

According to him, for the next year, the Ministry of Economy has not yet changed its forecast - it implies GDP growth in 2023 at 3.2%, as was laid down in the state budget.

The forecast is based on the scenario that the active phase of hostilities will end in the summer.

"The biggest risk today remains energy infrastructure. But in general, the economy of Ukraine has demonstrated the wonders of adaptation," Kudin said.

According to him, the good news is that the power system is recovering at a very fast pace, and now it is in many respects in line with the October level.

Also, enterprises adapt well to the new conditions of planned and emergency power outages - many of the manufacturers postpone working shifts to the period when there is power supply.

Kudin also noted that the shelling of energy infrastructure will have a negative impact on inflation, because enterprises will transfer an increase in their costs to consumers.

As for the dollar, the Ministry of Economy does not predict changes until the end of this year.

Next year, according to the forecast, which is included in the state budget for 2023, the average annual dollar exchange rate will be UAH 42.2.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in the 2nd quarter, GDP decreased by 37.2% compared to the same period in 2021.

The state budget for 2022 was developed based on the macroeconomic forecast, which implies real GDP growth of 3.8%.

However, due to Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, the fall of the domestic economy, according to international organizations, may be from 30% to 45%.

The Ministry of Economy in August predicted a 2022 GDP drop of 35-40%.