Politics 2024-06-15T05:28:23+03:00
Ukrainian news
ISW Analysts Tell Why Kremlin More Often Resorts To Prisoner Exchange

ISW Analysts Tell Why Kremlin More Often Resorts To Prisoner Exchange

ISW, Institute for the Study of War

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based on the collected data, conclude that the Russian Federation is likely to exchange prisoners of war more often in order to calm the wave of discontent in the information space. This is stated in the text of the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment as of November 25 of the ISW.

In particular, experts of the Institute suggest that the Russian Ministry of Defense probably increased the frequency of exchanges of prisoners of war in order to mitigate discontent in the information space due to previous failures in negotiations on the return of Russian prisoners of war.

ISW notes that Russian and Ukrainian sources reported three prisoner exchanges between November 23 and 25. So, on November 23, 35 Russian prisoners were exchanged for 35 Ukrainian prisoners, on November 24 the parties exchanged 50 prisoners of war, and on November 25 they exchanged in the format of 9 to 9.

Analysts of the Institute believe that the frequency of exchanges of prisoners of war over the past few days is a tipping point in itself, since in recent months the Russian Ministry of Defense has been noticeably restrained in conducting such exchanges and has been criticized for its apparent disrespect for its prisoners of war.

"The increased frequency of POW exchanges is likely meant partially to address discontent from Russian milbloggers, who reported on the most recent series of exchanges with a relatively neutral tone and emphasized the equal ratio of exchange," the Institute said.

Key Takeaways of the ISW

  1. Reports of a group of understaffed and ill-supplied mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space.
  2. President Vladimir Putin falsely presented a meeting with hand-picked women as an open discussion with mothers of mobilized personnel.
  3. An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed that the war in Ukraine has had a serious financial impact on the Russian Federation’s annual budget.
  4. The Russian MoD may have increased the frequency of POW exchanges to soothe discontent in the Russian information space.
  5. A Ukrainian official confirmed that Ukrainian forces killed Iranian military advisors in Russian-occupied Crimea and threatened to target Iranian military presence on Ukrainian territory.
  6. Russian military leadership may be circulating a document stating that Russia needs to mobilize five million personnel to win the war in Ukraine, which Russia cannot do.
  7. Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions northwest of Svatove and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations toward Kreminna.
  8. Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, and influential Russian figures may be setting informational conditions to deflect blame for a lack of progress in the Bakhmut area.
  9. Russian forces continued to establish defenses south of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and around critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting Crimea to southern Kherson Oblast.
  10. Russian sources and officials continue attempts to shape the narrative around a likely second partial mobilization while denying the potential for general mobilization.
  11. Russian officials are continuing efforts to stimulate demographic change in occupied areas of Ukraine by deporting Ukrainian residents and replacing them with imported Russian citizens.
Больше новостей о: ISW Institute for the Study of War