Politics 2024-02-15T05:01:55+02:00
Ukrainian news
RF’s Retreat from Kherson: ISW’s prediction if this move would become a trap for AFU

RF’s Retreat from Kherson: ISW’s prediction if this move would become a trap for AFU

kherson, river, Dnieper, AFU, ISW, surovikin


The withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson to the left bank of the Dnieper River occurred due to the successful operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not a trap of the occupiers.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to military analysts, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson direction since August is a coordinated interception campaign. It was aimed at forcing the Russian troops to withdraw beyond the Dnipro without requiring major ground offensives. This campaign was probably a success.

Ukrainian forces conducted constant attacks on bridges across the Dnipro River and struck supply nodes and ammunition depots on the banks of the Dnipro, reducing Russian forces' ability to supply the group on the right bank.

Ukrainian forces combined these strikes with careful and successful ground attacks on key points such as Davydiv Brid.

Russian sources note that the withdrawal of troops is a natural consequence of targeted and systematic Ukrainian strikes, which deprived the Russian group on the right bank of the main supply arteries, which gradually depleted their overall numbers and capabilities, analysts note.

"The withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper is unlikely to be a trap designed to lure Ukrainian troops into a costly battle near Kherson, as some Ukrainian and Western sources suggest," experts believe.

ISW has previously observed numerous signs that Russian forces, military and economic assets, as well as occupying elements are steadily being withdrawn from the right bank of the Dnieper River. Russian officials expected and prepared for the retreat in a way that is inconsistent with a campaign to deceive the armed forces.

The Russian command will certainly try to slow the advance of the Ukrainian forces to ensure an orderly withdrawal, and some forces may remain to hold back the Ukrainian forces in the city of Kherson itself, but these combat operations will be a means to withdraw as many Russian units as possible in good condition, noted the ISW.

ISW Key Findings:

  • The battle for Kherson is essentially not over, but Russian troops have entered a new phase, giving priority to withdrawing their troops across the river in full order.
  • Many famous voices in the space of Russian bloggers supported General Surovikin and called this decision necessary, pointing out that the Russian leadership had learned lessons from the information consequences of the catastrophic withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kharkiv Region in mid-September.
  • The Secretary of the Russian National Security Council Mykola Patrushev met on November 9 in Tehran with senior Iranian officials, probably to discuss the sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia and other forms of cooperation.
  • Russian and Ukrainian sources report fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna highway and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk Region.
  • Ukrainian forces achieved territorial gains northeast of the city of Kherson and continued their successful interception campaign.
  • Russian troops continued offensive operations in the area of ​​Bakhmut, Avdiyivka and in the west of the Donetsk Region.
  • Subjects of the Russian Federation have a hard time paying for mobilized personnel, and the Russian military has a hard time providing them.
  • Relatives of those mobilized continue to protest against non-payment and poor conditions of detention.
  • Collaborator Kyrylo Stremousov died in a car accident on the day when Russian troops announced the withdrawal from the right bank of the Kherson Region.
  • The occupying power in the rear is likely to increase repression and filtering measures of law enforcement agencies against the background of fears of Ukrainian counterattacks after the announcement of the withdrawal of troops on November 9.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on Wednesday, November 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered the commander of the Russian army group in Ukraine, Sergey Surovikin, to begin the withdrawal of troops from the right-bank part of the Kherson Region to the left bank of the Dnieper River.

Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, said that it is too early to talk about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River to the left, in particular, from Kherson.


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