Politics 2024-02-15T05:02:35+02:00
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RF’s mobilization fails Putin regime’s plans to achieve its goals – ISW

RF’s mobilization fails Putin regime’s plans to achieve its goals – ISW

Putin, rf, mobilization, regime, Plans, ISW, Fails, goals, achieve
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According to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's claims, the mobilization has not created opportunities to achieve his goals.

This is stated in another issue of the analytical note of American researchers.

According to the institute, Putin is likely creating the conditions for continued covert mobilization, suggesting that the partial mobilization has not created sufficient forces to achieve Putin's maximalist goals in Ukraine, despite his claims to the contrary.

The authorization of the mobilization of prisoners may also indicate that Putin is trying to prevent social tension by creating conditions for the conscription of convicts rather than civilian Russian men.

Russia's costly mobilization efforts will continue to weigh on the Russian economy and could lead to social tensions if the Kremlin defaults on its financial obligations to the participants in the "special military operation."

At the same time, the Russian military is probably trying to use the mobilized personnel to resume the Donetsk offensive operation, but, most likely, they will not be able to achieve operationally significant successes.

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, Russian forces prematurely used an insufficient concentration of mobilized personnel in offensive operations near Bakhmut and Vuhledar in the Donetsk Region on November 3.

The apparent intensification of Russian attacks in the Donetsk region probably indicates that the invaders are repeating this mistake along this entire front line. Increasing the number of front-line personnel may allow Russian forces to make some gains in the Donetsk Region, but poor training, logistics, and command will continue to prevent the occupiers from achieving operationally significant gains that would significantly affect the course or outcome of the war.

Russian troops are creating conditions for a controlled withdrawal in the northwest of the the Kherson Region, which will probably avoid a disorderly escape from the right (western) bank of the Dnieper River.

The invaders will probably have to take part in a combat retreat to prevent them from being pursued by Ukrainian troops on the left (eastern) bank.

ISW also suggests that Iran is using Russia's dependence on Iranian weapons systems to appeal to the Russian Federation for help in implementing its nuclear program.

Russian forces may be using extreme measures against deserters in an attempt to respond to serious morale problems. Therefore, according to the institute, commanders can resort to shooting deserters.

The key findings of ISW:

- The Russian military is probably trying to use the mobilized personnel to resume the attack on Donetsk, but, most likely, they will not be able to achieve operationally significant successes.

- RF troops are setting conditions for an orderly withdrawal from the western bank of the Dnieper River in order to avoid a debacle in the Kherson Region.

- Putin is likely creating the conditions for continued covert mobilization, despite claims that partial mobilization has led to the formation of a sufficient number of troops.

- Russia's costly military deployment measures are likely to continue to put pressure on the Russian economy and create social tension.

- Iran is likely to take advantage of Russia's reliance on Iranian weapon systems to ask Russia for help in implementing its nuclear program.

- Russian forces may deploy extreme measures against deserters to respond to serious morale problems.

- The occupiers continued measures to forcibly evacuate the population in the Kherson Region.

- Russian and occupying officials continued measures to forcibly remove Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation.

 



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