The Ukrainian Grain Association has lowered its current forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseed crops this year by 7.1% or 4.9 million tons to 64.5 million tons compared to the July forecast.
That follows from a statement by the Ukrainian Grain Association, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
According to the report, the decrease in the forecast is primarily due to a decrease of almost 1 million hectares (up to 18 million hectares) from which it is possible to harvest.
"Under these conditions, exports from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year may still amount to 32.8 million tons, provided that the sea route of export is preserved and the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine is expanded. At the same time, with transitional balances at the beginning of the season of 26 million tons grain and oilseeds, in the 2022/2023 marketing year the balance will be 30.5 million tons of grain and oilseeds," the message says.
The Ukrainian Grain Association expects this year's wheat harvest in Ukraine to be 19 million tons, while the transitional stocks of wheat from the previous harvest amounted to more than 10 million tons.
Export of wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year, taking into account large transitional stocks, may amount to about 10 million tons, and transitional stocks at the end of the season will amount to 12 million tons.
"The barley harvest forecast has also decreased and is 5.4 million tons (in 2021 – 10.1 million tons), and exports in the 2022/2023 marketing year can be expected to be 2 million tons. The corn harvest in the new season can be expected to be 24 million tons (last year, 37.6 million tons), while exports may amount to about 10 million tons. The sunflower crop has not changed and is expected to be 9 million tons (in 2021 – 16.9 million tons), and exports to the level of 6 million tons, taking into account the transitional stocks from last season at the level of 5.8 million tons. The processing of sunflower into oil may reach 7 million tons (last season, 10 million tons). The rapeseed harvest previously amounted to 3 million tons (in 2021 – 2.9 million tons), while the 2022/2023 marketing year export is expected to be 2.8 million tons," the report says.
The Ukrainian Grain Association expects the soybean harvest at the level of 2.2 million tons (in 2021 - 3.5 million tons), and the export of the 2022/2023 marketing year - 1.8 million tons.
According to the report, the export of grain and oilseeds in the 2022/2023 marketing year can be expected at the specified level, if the work of Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export is maintained.
As reported by Ukrainian News Agency, in July, the Ukrainian Grain Association raised its forecast for the grain and oilseed crop this year by 4.4% or 2.9 million tons to 69.4 million tons.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food maintains the forecast for the harvest of grain and oil crops at the level of 65-67 million tons in 2022.
In 2021, farmers harvested 106 million tons of grain, leguminous and oil crops, which is the largest indicator in the entire history of independent Ukraine.
More than 84 million tons of cereals and legumes were harvested, 22.6 million tons of oil crops.
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