The consequences of a full-scale war by Russia cause significant losses to the economy of Ukraine and create significant pro-inflationary pressure.
This is stated in the quarterly Inflation Report for July 2022, reports Ukrainian News Agency.
By the end of 2022, inflation will accelerate and reach 31%, given the persistence of the impact of most supply shocks.
It is, in particular, about the consequences of military operations and the high cost of energy carriers.
In the coming year, inflation is expected to slow down thanks to the improvement of inflationary expectations, the improvement of logistics and the gradual growth of harvests.
An additional disinflationary effect will be the decrease in global inflation and the tight monetary policy of the NBU.
Instead, the high cost of energy carriers and the need to gradually reduce energy tariffs for the population to market levels will restrain the slowdown of inflation.
As a result, consumer inflation will decline to around 20% in 2023 and slow to single-digit levels only at the end of 2024.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp decline in economic activity and loss of economic potential.
Economic activity has picked up since April, primarily due to the liberation of the northern regions and a reduction in the number of regions with active hostilities, but the economy is operating at a much lower capacity than it was before the war.
As a result, in 2022 real GDP will decrease by a third.
In the next year, provided security risks are reduced, the economy is expected to return to growth due to the revival of consumer demand, the establishment of technological and logistics processes, the restoration of investment activities, in particular due to the prospects of European integration.
At the same time, significant losses of production and human potential will hold back the recovery of the economy.
In 2023-2024, GDP will grow at a rate of about 5-6% per year.
As reported by Ukrainian News Agency, the National Bank is ready, if necessary, to apply additional measures to protect international reserves, improve monetary transmission and contain inflationary pressure.
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