ISW Analysts Predict Culmination Of Russian Offensive In Donetsk Region

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the current Russian offensive in Donetsk region may end with the capture of Sloviansk or Bakhmut.

It is reported by the ISW.

According to military analysts, the current Russian offensive may lead to limited new territorial achievements in the Donbas northeast of the E40 highway, but will probably end with the capture of Sloviansk or Bakhmut.

Over the past few weeks, Russian troops have not achieved significant success in the direction of Sloviansk or along the Siversk-Bakhmut salient and continue to reduce their offensive power in local battles for small and relatively unimportant settlements throughout Donetsk region.

Now it is difficult for Russian troops to advance in relatively sparsely populated and open terrain.

As the ISW predicts, Russian troops will face terrain that will be much more favorable for the Ukrainian defenders, the closer they move to the E40 around Sloviansk and Bakhmut.

This is due to the density of the population and the build-up of these areas. Therefore, the current Russian offensive in the Donbas is likely to culminate somewhere along the E40 in the coming weeks.

On July 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov formulated the expanded geographical objectives of the Russian war in Ukraine, confirming the ISW's long-standing assessment that Russia has a territorial target outside Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Key findings from ISW analysts:

• The current Russian offensive will likely make marginal territorial gains northeast of the E40 highway in Donetsk before culminating along the E40.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is pursuing expanded territorial gains in Ukraine beyond Luhansk and Donetsk regions, confirming ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin seeks to capture territory beyond the Donbas.
• Russian forces resumed limited ground attacks northwest of Sloviansk and around the Donetsk - Avdiivka area.
• Russian forces continued localized ground assaults east of Siversk and made marginal gains northeast of Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces conducted the second consecutive high-precision strike against the Antonivskyi Bridge - a major Russian logistics artery east of Kherson City.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely propagandizing recent Ukrainian high-precision strikes and partisan activity to set conditions for mass deportations of Ukrainian citizens to Russian territory.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock commented on the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation on expanding the geography of the tasks of Russia's war against Ukraine. Baerbock called such statements new Russian propaganda.

The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said that the Kremlin's statement on changing the "geography" of the war indicates Russia's desire to seize more Ukrainian lands. 

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