The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has revised upwards its forecast for grain and oilseeds harvest this year by 4.4%, or 2.9 million tons to 69.4 million tons.
The UGA has said this in a statement, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
"This year, Ukraine can receive (harvest) 69.4 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 19.1 million hectares. (The previous forecast for the harvest was 66.5 million tons). Exports from Ukraine may reach 31.5 million tons with a significant increase in the throughput of crossings at the borders of Ukraine. Under the current throughput, Ukraine can count on a volume of about 25-30 million tons in the 2022/2023 marketing year.
In addition, according to the report, carry-over balances from the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY) amounted to about 25.9 million tons, and in MY 2022/2023, according to optimistic forecasts, they may increase to 36.6 million tons, and according to pessimistic ones, about 48 million tons.
"We can expect the wheat harvest in Ukraine this year at the level of 20.8 million tons, despite a significantly lower figure than last year (33 million tons), but this volume of wheat is three times more than Ukraine consumes per year. At the same time, carry-over stocks of wheat of the last harvest amount to over 10 million tons. Wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY, taking into account large carry-over stocks, may amount to about 10 million tons of wheat. Forecast for the barley harvest remained unchanged - 6.6 million tons (in 2021 - 10.1 million tons), and exports in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 2 million tons,” the report says.
According to the report, the corn harvest in the new season can be expected at the level of 27.3 million tons (last year it was 37.6 million tons), while exports may reach about 10 million tons.
"The sunflower harvest can be expected at the level of 9 million tons (in 2021 - 16.9 million tons), and exports at the level of 6 million tons, taking into account carryover stocks from last season, at the level of 5.8 million tons. The processing of sunflower into oil can reach 7 million tons (last season the figure was 10 million tons). The increase in sunflower seed exports is due to restrictions on oil exports due to logistical problems. The rapeseed crop is forecast at 1.65 million tons (2021 - 2.9 million tons), with exports in 2022 /2023 MY is expected at the level of 1.45 million tons, the soybean harvest is expected at the level of 2.2 million tons (in 2021 - 3.5 million tons)," the message says.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the UGA earlier raised the forecast for grain and oilseeds harvest in 2022 by 5.6% to 66.5 million tons.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food predicts a decrease in the grain and oilseeds harvest by 38.7%, or 41 million tons, to 65 million tons in 2022 year over year.
In 2021, farmers harvested 106 million tons of grain, legumes and oilseeds, which is the largest figure in the history of independent Ukraine.
More than 84 million tons of grains and legumes were harvested, oilseeds - 22.6 million tons.
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