The offensive of Russian troops in the east of Ukraine is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than the previous ones, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War analytical center (United States) of April 18.
Russian forces did not take the operational pause that was likely necessary to reconstitute and properly integrate damaged units withdrawn from the north-east of Ukraine into operations in the east of Ukraine, while the troops launched large-scale offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, focusing on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Mariinka, experts write.
“Russian forces may be able to gain ground through the heavy concentration of artillery and numbers. However, Russian operations are unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous major offensives around Kyiv. The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes - poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale - that impeded prior offensives,” the Institute for the Study of War points out.
Experts also noted successful Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv, which would likely force Russian forces to divert some units intended for the Izium offensive, but Ukrainian forces are unlikely to completely sever Russian lines of communication north of Izium in the coming days.
Russian troops continued to storm the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, but over the past 24 hours have not made any verifiable progress, despite the use of artillery and constant aerial bombing, analysts say.
Mariupol's Ukrainian defenders continued to resist heavy Russian artillery and aerial bombardment. Significant forces of the Russian Federation are still constrained in this seaside city, the Institute for the Study of War believes.
Experts noted that the Russian authorities are faced with a growing reluctance to fight both among conscripts and among contract soldiers, whose reluctance to fight reaches 60-70%. At the same time, the Russian troops seek to disrupt the supply of weapons to Ukraine from the Western allies, but for this they lack precision weapons to strike at these targets in the west of Ukraine, the report says.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on Tuesday, April 19, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled the offensive of Russian troops in Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region.
On April 18, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that the Russian invaders were trying to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian military in several directions, choosing Izium in Kharkiv region as the main one.
On April 18, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a traditional evening video address said that Russian troops had begun the battle for the Donbas.
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