Russia Preparing Provocation To Justify Use Of Nuclear Weapons Against Ukraine - Defense Reforms Center

Given the impossibility of securing a military victory in Ukraine using conventional methods of warfare, the leadership of the Russian Federation probably decided to carry out a provocation by the Russian special services under the image of Ukrainian military personnel at the "object C" of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation in the military town of Belgorod-22 to justify the use of nuclear weapons at Donbas.

Oleksandr Danyliuk, head of the Center for Defense Reforms, coordinator of the interdepartmental platform for countering hybrid threats, which operates within the framework of Ukraine-NATO cooperation, stated this on Facebook, citing a source in the intelligence community.

"The Russian leadership, in the face of the obvious inability of the RF Armed Forces to obtain a military victory in Ukraine by conventional forces, is looking for an opportunity to use nuclear weapons in Donbas. In accordance with the Russian nuclear doctrine, among the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation is the use of nuclear weapons against the Russian Federation (or other weapons of mass defeat), or the impact on the objects of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation, which can lead to their withdrawal from service," he said.

"In accordance with the information received from the intelligence community, as of the beginning of April 2022, the Russian special services were studying the possibility of organizing a provocation that would allow accusing Ukraine of creating such threats. In particular, the Russians considered the option of capturing one of the objects of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation by persons who would pretend to be military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, fighters of Azov, or representatives of the Right Sector. Along with the capture, options were also considered for carrying out sabotage under the Ukrainian flag or for delivering a fire strike," the head of the Center for Defense Reforms said.

"The most likely object of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation on which such a provocation can be implemented is "object C", one of the central bases for the storage of nuclear weapons, which is located in Belgorod-22 (the settlements of Graivoron and Golovchina in Belgorod region) a few kilometers from the border with Ukraine (Sumy region)," said the coordinator of the interdepartmental platform for countering hybrid threats.

"Statements by Russian officials and propagandists about the need to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, as well as the introduction of a regime of increased terrorist threat in the regions of the Russian Federation bordering Ukraine, indicate a high probability that the leadership of the Russian Federation has already decided to implement such a provocation and has begun direct preparations for it," Oleksandr Danyliuk summed up.

Earlier, the Pentagon, assessing the course of Russia's war against Ukraine, said that Putin had no strength left, except for threats of nuclear weapons.

On April 11, the Head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced the continuation of the offensive of Russian troops in Ukraine, as well as plans to take Kyiv, voicing a threat to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

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