A new wave of COVID-19 incidence is beginning in Ukraine.
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) HAS said this in a statement, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
"The dynamics of the number of new cases and positive PCR tests allows us to conclude that another wave of morbidity is beginning in Ukraine. The number of positive tests has increased by almost 40% compared to the minimum of the last days of December, and the volume of testing and the positiveness of tests are also increasing," the statement says.
According to the statement, the average number of new cases in Ukraine amounted to 4,540 people per day, the average number of deaths is 158 per day on average over the past week.
It is noted that Ukraine generally follows the trends of the countries of Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and others) with a slight time delay.
Since the beginning of the new wave fell on the holiday period, which traditionally leads to anomalies in the data, it is now difficult to assess and predict the real speed of the spread of the epidemic.
According to the forecast calculations, the average number of new cases will be 6,202 (average predicted value of the SEIR-U compartment model) and 4,795 (average predicted value of the statistical Prophet model) during January 12-18, 2022; 7,072 (SEIR_U) and 4,735 (Prophet) - during January 19-25.
Also, the observed mortality increased to 3.2-3.3% relative to dates 4-5 weeks ago.
This growth occurred mainly due to changes in the age structure of patients and has nothing to do with the pathogenic properties of the virus.
In the last 3-5 days, the proportion of young adults under 35 years among patients has increased, and they have become more often admitted to hospitals.
According to the data on the infectiousness of the Omicron strain and the epidemic trends in a number of countries around the world, it is possible to expect a more rapid growth than ever before in epidemic indicators.
It is noted that the opening of schools after the holidays and seasonality can significantly affect the dynamics of the epidemic.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Ministry of Health predicts a surge in the incidence of coronavirus in late January, with a peak in February.
The National Security and Defense Council predicts a wave of the incidence of the Omicron coronavirus strain in Ukraine in February.
On January 11, the number of newly-registered Covid-19 cases in Ukraine rose by 7,117 over January 10 to 3,716,988, and the number of deaths increased by 193 over January 10 to 97,737; at the same time, the number of new cases increased by 31%, and the number of new deaths decreased by 11.9%.
According to the report, as of the morning of January 12, a total of 3,716,988 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases were registered in Ukraine; the number included 97,737 deaths; 3,530,624 had recovered.
On January 11, a total of 7,117 new disease cases were recorded, 193 people died, and 8,077 people recovered.
Therefore, as of January 11, the number of newly infected people was lower than that of those who recovered (7,117 vs 8,077).
At the same time, on January 11, a total of 1,898 coronavirus-infected people were hospitalized, up twice over January 10.
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