The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) downgraded the forecast for GDP growth from 3.8% to 3.1% and retained the forecast for inflation at 9.6% in 2021.
The NBU has said this in a statement, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
At the same time, the growth forecast for 2022 was also worsened - from 4% to 3.8%, and for 2023 - it was retained at 4%.
The inflation forecast for 2022 and 2023 has also been retained - at 5% each.
According to the National Bank's estimates, the peak of the growth of consumer prices falls precisely in September-October of this year.
It is noted that in the future the inflationary trend will reverse, inflation will slow down due to the exhaustion of the effects of the low comparison base, the preservation of a favorable situation in the foreign exchange market and high crop yields.
The growth in consumer prices will also be constrained by the previous steps of the National Bank to tighten monetary policy - optimize its operational design, completely roll back anti-crisis monetary measures and increase the discount rate.
Under the influence of these factors, inflation will slow down to 5% at the end of 2022, and in the future it will stay near the target.
The National Bank has revised its forecast for real GDP growth over the forecast horizon, taking into account the long-term and significant impact of the pandemic and the consequences of a sharp increase in natural gas prices.
In the first half of 2021, the economic recovery was slightly weaker than expected.
This is due to a number of factors, in particular the influence of quarantine.
On the other hand, high-frequency indicators of economic activity indicate economic recovery in the second half of the year.
Thus, the record harvest of early grain crops led to the rapid growth of agriculture.
The unfavorable situation on the energy market, together with the consequences of logistics problems in the world, will limit the output of the Ukrainian industry and restrain the pace of economic recovery next year.
With this in mind, the National Bank revised its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 4% to 3.8%.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the actual growth of real GDP in the second quarter turned out to be lower than the National Bank's estimate due to uneven financing of budget expenditures.
In the second quarter of 2021, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 5.7% on an annualized basis, but compared to the first quarter of 2021, it decreased by 0.7% in seasonally adjusted terms.
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