Economy 2021-02-15T04:05:18+02:00
Ukrainian news
44.5% Of Enterprises Forecast Hryvnia Exchange Rate Fluctuations 29.01-30 UAH/USD - NBU Survey

44.5% Of Enterprises Forecast Hryvnia Exchange Rate Fluctuations 29.01-30 UAH/USD - NBU Survey

NBU, business, inflation, hryvnia exchange rate, Economic development

Business expectations for economic development have slightly worsened, inflation and devaluation expectations have increased, 44.5% of enterprises forecast hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations in the range of 29.01-30 UAH/USD.

This is evidenced by a survey of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) of enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2020, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

Business assessments regarding economic growth and their own development worsened, while inflation and devaluation expectations for the next 12 months rose amid strengthening of quarantine measures.

The business expectations index of enterprises was 99.6%, having worsened after an improvement in the third quarter, when optimistic sentiment prevailed (100.8%).

The decrease in the index was due to the deterioration of the respondents' estimates of the total sales of their own production, investment costs for machinery, equipment and inventory, as well as the financial and economic condition of their own enterprises.

Enterprises expect that the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months will continue to decline.

Inflation expectations of enterprises have intensified: in the fourth quarter, the expected annual inflation was 7.9% compared to 7.0% in the previous quarter.

Almost half of the surveyed enterprises believe that inflation will be below 7.5%.

At the same time, every fifth respondent forecasts inflation from 7.5% to 10.0%.

The influence of the weakening of the hryvnia on inflation has increased: 71.9% of respondents noted this against 69.4% in the last quarter.

Business devaluation expectations also increased.

The average exchange rate that respondents expect in 12 months is 29.68 UAH/USD (in the previous quarter - 28.99 UAH/USD).

44.5% of enterprises believe that the exchange rate will fluctuate between 29.01 UAH/USD and 30.00 UAH/USD.

The quarterly survey was conducted from November 5 to December 3, 2020.

693 enterprises from 22 regions of the country took part in it (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank.

The business expectations index is an aggregate measure of the expected development of enterprises in the next 12 months.


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