Economy 2022-07-15T08:09:36+03:00
Ukrainian news
NBU Estimates GDP Growth At 1.5% Q2

NBU Estimates GDP Growth At 1.5% Q2

NBU, GDP, inflation, outlook

The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) to be at 1.5% in the second quarter of 2017.

This is said in the updated inflation outlook released by the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

According to the report, in the second quarter, halted trade with the uncontrolled territories of Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) continues to impact the economic growth, first of all in the industrial sector.

"In general, the data from companies of the mining and smelting industrial sector is in line with the assessment by the National Bank, given the situation with the halted transport communication with the country's east. At the same time, in the energy sector, the situation appears to be a little bit worse than expected, which, however, also attributes to external factors such as weather conditions. On the other hand, business outlook and consumer spending improved along with growth of capital expenditures from consolidated budget. So, the overall outlook for real GDP in the second quarter was underrated," the Regulator said.

In general, the outlook for the GDP growth in 2017 was revised downwards to 1.6% due to worsened results of economic activity in the first quarter of 2017 and lowered estimation of crops yield.

But in 2018-2019, the GDP growth is expected to hike from 3.2% to 4%.

"We expect the growth as a result of gradual relaxation in fiscal and monetary regulations that will stimulate consumer spending, improve investment climate and facilitate export growth backed with updated trade conditions and high volumes of yield," the NBU said.

In particular, private consumer spending is expected to be the main driving force of the economic growth, stimulated by increased actual wages and planned raising of pensions in the fall of 2017, the improvement of consumer spending and revival of bank crediting.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in July, the National Bank of Ukraine worsened the outlook for the GDP in 2017 from 1.9% to 1.6%.

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