In the second quarter of 2026, businesses anticipated a pickup in business activity over the next 12 months; respondents were more confident about growth in the production of goods and services and were optimistic about the development of their own companies, while inflation and exchange rate expectations rose slightly.
This is stated in a report by the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency informs.
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) rose to 107% compared to 105.8% in the first quarter of 2026.
Survey participants improved their assessments of nearly all components of the index, most notably regarding total sales of their own products and investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory. Enterprises in 17 of the surveyed regions and across the vast majority of economic sectors expected a revival in business activity. At the same time, unlike in the previous two surveys, business leaders’ assessments of future total headcount became somewhat more cautious.
Military operations and their consequences remain the dominant factor limiting enterprises’ ability to increase production volumes. The shortage of skilled workers continues to have a significant impact. More than any other factor, respondents expected the impact of excessively high prices for raw materials and supplies to intensify.
The expected annual inflation rate for the next 12 months was 11.6%, compared to 11.1% in the previous survey. Hostilities remain the most significant inflationary factor for 80.6% of respondents. Respondents also expected significant impacts from the factors “production costs” and “the hryvnia’s exchange rate against foreign currencies.” Expectations regarding the impact of “prices on global markets” have strengthened significantly.
Survey participants raised their exchange rate expectations for both the US dollar and the euro: the expected average exchange rate over the next 12 months is 46.12 UAH/USD and 54.42 UAH/EUR (in the first quarter: 45 UAH/USD and 54 UAH/EUR).
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents—business leaders—and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Business Activity Expectations Index is an aggregate indicator of expected business performance over the next 12 months. It is calculated based on the results of surveys of enterprises as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding the financial and economic condition of enterprises, total sales of their own products, investment expenditures on construction work, machinery, equipment, and inventory, and the number of employees. An index value above 100 indicates that positive economic sentiment prevails in society, while a value below 100 indicates negative economic sentiment.
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