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Russia deliberately struck Ukraine on eve of NATO summit - ISW

Main points
  • Russia carried out a massive shelling campaign ahead of the NATO summit to deter Ukraine’s Western allies.
  • The Institute for the Study of War suggests that russian forces deliberately timed their latest massive attack on Ukraine.
  • The Ministry of Defense of the aggressor state stated that it would not remain indifferent to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine.
 
vladimir putin. Photo: kremlin
vladimir putin. Photo: kremlin

Russia, the aggressor state, likely deliberately carried out a massive shelling campaign on the eve of the NATO summit to deter Ukraine’s Western allies from increasing their support out of fear that the attacks would intensify further.

This is stated in a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts suggested that russian forces deliberately timed their latest massive attack on Ukraine to create a propaganda effect ahead of the NATO summit, which will take place on July 7–8 in Turkey.

In particular, in a statement regarding Ukraine’s nighttime strikes on russia, the aggressor state’s Ministry of Defense declared that russia would not remain indifferent to Western supplies of drones, missiles, and ammunition to Ukraine and would respond by increasing the number and intensity of its strikes on Ukraine.

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Also, the Institute notes that russia has frequently launched large-scale strikes against Ukraine on the eve of major international events, such as the US-russia summit in Alaska in August 2025 and numerous bilateral talks between the US and Ukraine, the US and russia, as well as between Europe and Ukraine in 2025 and 2026.

“The Kremlin likely aims to deter Ukraine’s Western partners from agreeing to continue or increase their support for Ukraine at the NATO summit out of fear of Russia escalating its strike campaign against Ukraine,” ISW analysts concluded.

As a reminder, the death toll in Kyiv from the massive attack by the aggressor state of russia on the night of July 6 has risen to 19 after emergency responders recovered another body from under the rubble. A Day of Mourning has also been declared in the city.

In addition, a Day of Mourning was declared in the Kyiv Region for those killed in the russian attack. The shelling by the aggressor state of russia claimed eight lives in the region.

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