Since beginning of year, russia has seized 70% less territory than it did in second half of 2025

Since the beginning of the year, the situation on the front lines has been extremely unfavorable for the army of the aggressor country, russia. In six months, it has managed to capture 70% less territory than it did in the second half of 2025. French OSINT analyst Clément Molin wrote about this on his X (Twitter) account.

According to him, in June, russian troops captured about 29 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. During the same period, the Ukrainian Defense Forces were able to regain control of 14 square kilometers of the so-called “gray zone.”

“It's important to understand that the Ukrainian army is losing territory in the gray zone (958 km² in 2026) and the Russian army is gaining territory in that same gray zone (699 km² in 2026). That said, the numbers are bad, even when compared to the first months of 2025,” Molin writes.

The analyst emphasized that the figures look bad for russia, even compared to the first months of 2025, when from February to May its army captured less than 250 square kilometers.

Photo: x.com/clement_molin.

Molin noted that progress curves are often subject to criticism. There is also a persistent argument that the russian-Ukrainian war is a war of attrition.

"But month after month, the Ukrainians—who were "supposed to collapse"—keep getting back up, innovating, and bringing the attrition deeper into Russian lines. Over the last 10 weeks, Ukrainians have had a net territorial gain in 6 of them,” the post states.

Molin also noted that there is a widespread belief online that analysts generally underestimate russian successes. At the same time, it is never mentioned that the Ukrainian army’s successes are also underestimated. The Ukrainians have achieved successes on two sections of the front in the Donetsk Region and one in the Zaporizhzhia Region, but these are not publicized for operational security (OPSEC) reasons.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on June 1, the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState stated that in May, the russian army captured about 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. This is the occupiers’ lowest gain since October 2023.

Shortly before that, Z-channels and russian military bloggers acknowledged a slowdown in the russian army’s advance and noted that a deadlock was developing on the front lines.

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