Russia may be preparing military and hybrid provocations on NATO’s eastern flank to test the West’s unity and the US’s willingness to defend the Alliance’s smallest members. The kremlin is taking this step amid growing pressure due to Ukraine’s successful long-range strikes, according to The Guardian.
According to intelligence sources, moscow is planning actions that will not escalate into a full-scale attack, as russia currently lacks the capacity to open a second front. Instead, analysts predict hybrid scenarios, including the use of missiles or drones. Latvian intelligence has already detected signs of preparations for such actions against the Baltic states or Poland. The main goal of these attacks is to send a warning signal to the West and force it to stop supporting Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk officially confirmed the allies’ concerns following the Eastern Flank Summit in Gdańsk. He stated that the situation is extremely unstable and that various forms of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months, which is why NATO’s frontline countries are jointly preparing for potential risks.
Experts attribute the kremlin’s nervousness to successful Ukrainian drone attacks on russian strategic targets near moscow and St. Petersburg. They suggest that, due to difficulties on the front lines in Ukraine, vladimir putin will seek ways to change the dynamics of the war by horizontally escalating the conflict to other countries.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, russia is demanding territory from Belarus to launch attacks on Ukraine and carry out provocations against NATO.
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