US intelligence services have warned the Donald Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that could undermine Trump's efforts to conclude a peace deal with Iran.
This is reported by The Washington Post, citing current and former US officials.
The intelligence report says Netanyahu, under intense political pressure ahead of the fall elections, intends to continue military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a direct contradiction of a key clause in the newly signed memorandum that calls for a cessation of hostilities in that country.
The intelligence report notes that Netanyahu's political survival depends on what he can demonstrate to an Israeli audience. According to one official familiar with the document, "any cessation of hostilities or withdrawal of troops would be perceived in Israel as a defeat for Netanyahu."
The intelligence report also describes Israel's dissatisfaction with the terms of the memorandum, which Tel Aviv sees as undermining its maximum pressure strategy on Tehran.
The tensions between the allies are already showing publicly. So, on Wednesday, June 17, Trump said that he had a "little argument with Netanyahu about Lebanon" and urged the Israeli leader not to "tear down buildings every time someone from Hezbollah comes in." The White House has already made it clear that it will not tolerate sabotage. Vice President JD Vance told reporters the day before: Trump is "the only head of state in the world who sympathizes with Israel," emphasizing that the American president is "the head of a superpower." "If I were in the Israeli government, I would not attack the only powerful ally I have left," Vance said. "Bibi (Benjamin Netanyahu, - ed.) is in a very difficult situation. He sees his main rival, the Iranian regime, getting stronger with the support of the US administration, and he can do nothing about it," said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence analyst.
An unnamed US official, in turn, warned that "without a full withdrawal of Israeli troops, the likelihood of renewed fighting between [the Israeli military] and Hezbollah is virtually guaranteed."
Harrison Mann, a former US Army officer and analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency, listed the tools Washington has to pressure Israel: the US can cut off supplies of ammunition, jet fuel, freeze intelligence sharing, or withdraw US troops defending Israeli airspace.
However, as Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, noted, US presidents have never used these levers.
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