Mykhaylo Kurachenko: How Ukrainian Airlines Survive and Profit Despite a Closed Sky

How the market has transformed during the war, explained by aviation expert Mykhaylo Kurachenko

Russia’s full-scale invasion and the closure of Ukrainian airspace dealt an unprecedented blow to the country’s civil aviation sector. Yet the industry’s financial results reveal a paradox: some airlines have not only survived the crisis but have also managed to return to profitability.

According to 2024 industry figures, Ukrainian airlines transported approximately 480,000 passengers and more than 31,000 tonnes of cargo. For comparison, passenger traffic in 2022 totaled nearly 980,000 travelers, while cargo volumes exceeded 64,000 tonnes.

However, aviation expert and Ukrainian-American entrepreneur Mykhaylo Kurachenko argues that these figures should be viewed within the broader context of wartime realities.

"If we compare current volumes with pre-war 2021 levels, today’s figures appear extremely low. However, I would focus less on absolute numbers and more on the fact that these companies have managed to remain operational. The industry has now spent four years without access to its domestic market. For any aviation sector in the world, that would be an unprecedented challenge," he says.

According to Kurachenko, what is happening today can best be described as a "structural transformation of the market."

"In this new structure, the first segment consists of large internationally oriented carriers that have effectively become exporters of aviation services. The second includes airlines whose business models were heavily dependent on Ukrainian airports. The financial gap between these two groups is now significant," he explains.

Passenger Airlines

According to data analyzed by Slovo i Dilo, Windrose recorded the largest losses among passenger carriers in 2022, amounting to UAH 1.6 billion. The loss declined to UAH 750.5 million in 2023 and to UAH 553 million during the first three quarters of 2024. The airline currently operates flights from Moldova and Montenegro.

SkyUp posted a loss of UAH 596.7 million in 2022 before shifting to a wet-lease model, providing aircraft together with crews to foreign airlines. As a result, the company reported a profit of UAH 305.1 million in 2023 and UAH 137 million during the first three quarters of 2024.

A Ukrainian airline flight on the London–Chișinău route in March 2026. Photo by the author

Kurachenko believes this operational transformation has been critical for the survival of many carriers.

"Wet leasing allowed airlines to monetize their fleets without relying on Ukrainian airports. This is one of the main reasons why some carriers are generating profits despite not operating from Ukraine," he says.

Skyline Express followed a similar trajectory. The airline reported losses of UAH 464.7 million in 2022, reduced them to UAH 25.4 million in 2023, and generated a profit of UAH 171.2 million during the first three quarters of 2024. The company primarily operates from bases in Poland and the Baltic states.

Charter carrier Constanta reported a profit of UAH 0.3 million in 2022, a loss of UAH 20.9 million in 2023, and a profit of UAH 25.1 million during the first three quarters of 2024.

Cargo Aviation

The cargo aviation segment has weathered the crisis more successfully.

CAVOK Air recorded a loss of UAH 32.5 million in 2022, followed by profits of UAH 47.7 million in 2023 and UAH 21.8 million during the first three quarters of 2024.

Ukraine Air Alliance remained modestly profitable throughout the war, posting profits of UAH 0.5 million in 2022, UAH 1.4 million in 2023, and UAH 1.9 million during the first three quarters of 2024.

The strongest financial performance came from Antonov Airlines, which generated a profit of UAH 654 million in 2022 and nearly UAH 3 billion in 2023.

According to Kurachenko, this success stems from the company’s unique position in the global market.

"Its unique fleet and specialization in oversized cargo transportation remain key competitive advantages even during wartime. For the global market, aircraft of this type are essentially a rare product, which means demand remains strong regardless of developments in Ukraine," he explains.

Outlook

While many observers expect the aviation market to eventually recover to at least its 2021 level after the war, experts caution that the industry emerging from the conflict will be fundamentally different.

"Many airlines have already integrated into the European market. Routes, business models, and demand patterns have changed. The dominant trend today is the gradual transformation of Ukrainian aviation into a new international operating model. The industry will not return to what it was before the war," Mykhaylo Kurachenko concludes.

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