Inflation will accelerate toward end of year and begin to slow down next year - NBU

Inflation will remain near current levels over the coming months, accelerate toward the end of the year, but will slow down again in 2027.

This is stated in a report by the National Bank of Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian News agency.

A sufficient supply of raw food products will limit inflation growth in the coming months. At the same time, price pressures will persist due to rising business costs resulting from higher energy prices and the weakening of the hryvnia in previous periods, as well as continued wage growth amid labor shortages. The stabilization of energy prices, increased crop yields, and the impact of the NBU’s monetary policy are expected to help bring inflation back onto a path of sustained deceleration in 2027.

Expected inflows of external assistance will make it possible to finance the budget deficit and maintain a sufficient level of international reserves to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market.

In January–May, external financial assistance was lower than anticipated, but inflows are expected to catch up going forward. Specifically, in June, Ukraine may receive approximately USD 13 billion through both assistance from individual countries and existing support programs: the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) and the Ukraine Support Loan (USL). Progress in negotiations with the IMF, particularly the conclusion of a Staff Level Agreement, is an important step toward further funding under the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program.

The NBU continues to expect sufficient external financing, which will be enough both to cover the budget deficit and to increase international reserves—a key factor in ensuring the continued stability of the foreign exchange market.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in April the National Bank revised its inflation forecast downward from 7.5% to 9.4% for 2026.

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