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Kremlin dictator begins to acknowledge setbacks in war against Ukraine - ISW analysts

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Kremlin.
Vladimir Putin. Photo: Kremlin.

During the celebrations marking russia day on June 12, kremlin dictator vladimir putin once again made a series of statements regarding the russian federation’s military strength. However, he also acknowledged some of the russian army’s setbacks on the battlefield in recent months.

At the same time, the dictator refuses to acknowledge the scale of the challenges facing the aggressor state and, it seems, has no intention of ending the war.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the reasons and objectives behind putin’s new statements.

On russia day, putin, accompanied by russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, met with russian occupiers. During the meeting, they emphasized their commitment to military victory in Ukraine and to achieving the goals and objectives set by the dictator.

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Putin used this meeting to flaunt russia’s “military might.” For instance, he praised russian military-technological innovations, including FPV drones, the integration of artificial intelligence into drones, the scaling up of tactical electronic warfare systems, and russia’s efforts to create a satellite constellation as an alternative to Starlink. The dictator attempted to portray the russian military as a technologically advanced force that is rapidly progressing.

Putin also highlighted recent social support measures for russian soldiers, veterans, and their families. At the same time, the russian dictator repeated the kremlin’s long-standing rhetoric: russia, he claimed, is waging a war against NATO — and, in putin’s view, is demonstrating its strength in this war.

"Putin likely intended to use the meeting with Russian servicemembers to project strength for the Russia Day celebrations following the embarrassment of his scaled-down Victory Day Parade on May 9 and successful Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian military assets in St. Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) from June 3 to 6," the analysts noted.

They pointed out that putin appears to have begun acknowledging some of the setbacks currently facing the russian military. At the same time, he refuses to acknowledge the scale of the military challenges facing russia.

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For instance, putin mentioned strikes by Ukrainian drones but framed them as an attempt to sow discord within russian society and inflict economic damage on the russian federation. By “Ukraine’s drone strikes,” the dictator presumably meant both the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign targeting military facilities and oil infrastructure deep within russian territory, as well as the “intermediate-range interdiction” campaign in the occupied territories of Ukraine, which is causing fuel shortages and serious logistical problems.

However, the dictator refuses to acknowledge the severity of these strikes. He stated that russia is strengthening its air defense, and that the russian economy is recovering quickly after the Ukrainian strikes—and threatened “retaliatory” strikes against Ukraine.

Putin also acknowledged that russian troops are advancing “not as quickly as we [Russia] would like,” but noted that they are still advancing “every day gradually.”

The dictator continues to refuse to acknowledge that Ukrainian counterattacks since March of this year have brought tactical successes to the Defense Forces in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions.

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Contrary to the dictator’s claims of the occupying army’s “daily advances,” the ISW noted that the pace of russian forces’ capture of Ukrainian territory has been steadily declining since November 2025. And in April and May, the occupiers suffered net territorial losses.

"Putin likely chose to acknowledge some of the setbacks Russian forces are facing to appear more in touch with the battlefield realities to Russian servicemembers who have directly experienced these setbacks. Ukraine has been increasing the scale and scope of its long-range and intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower since early Spring 2026, which has impeded Russian advances across the theater and is disrupting Russian logistic routes across occupied Ukraine, particularly in southern Ukraine and into occupied Crimea,” the analysts concluded.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, vladimir putin has increased the authorized strength of russia’s armed forces for the fifth time since the start of the war.

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