In russia, the number of people willing to sign contracts with the russian Ministry of Defense to participate in the war against Ukraine continues to decline. According to analysts’ estimates, this figure has fallen by 20% over the past year.
This is stated in a new report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts drew attention to data published by the outlet "Vazhnye Istorii." According to the media source, which cites russia’s federal budget expenditures, 71,200 people received one-time payments for signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense in the first quarter of 2026. This is 20% less than during the same period last year.
At the same time, throughout 2025, 363,900 people signed contracts with the russian Defense Ministry. This is 10% less compared to 2024.
The ISW notes that russia is facing increasing difficulties in replenishing its personnel amid significant losses on the front lines. In response, the kremlin is forced to increase payments for signing contracts, tap into reserves, and activate covert mobilization mechanisms.
Analysts also believe that russia’s numerical superiority is gradually losing its effectiveness due to Ukraine’s active use of drones and medium-range weapons. According to ISW, this allows the Ukrainian Defense Forces to inflict disproportionately heavy losses in manpower and equipment on the russian army.
As a result, experts concluded that against the backdrop of a decline in the number of recruits and rising losses, the russian authorities may resort to phased and limited call-ups of reservists to compensate for the personnel shortage in the war against Ukraine.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, according to the National Resistance Center, in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories, the russian “administration” has turned “last bell” ceremonies in schools into yet another stage of military propaganda and the recruitment of young people into the ranks of the aggressor state’s armed forces.
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