Analysts at ICU forecast GDP growth of 0.8% and inflation of 9.4% in 2026.
This is stated in the company’s materials, as reported by the Ukrainian News agency.
It is noted that the Ukrainian economy once again demonstrated unprecedented resilience to massive blackouts at the beginning of the year—the 0.5% year-over-year contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 was slightly lower than most estimates. However, its growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
Private household consumption has once again confirmed its status as the main driver of economic growth, with additional support provided by government investments in military projects. However, the strength of these two components will gradually weaken, so we forecast real GDP growth of less than 1% this year. Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly.
"The crisis in the Middle East has become a key event for the global economy. It has rapidly impacted consumer prices through primary and secondary effects. The sustained disinflationary trend in Ukraine has sharply reversed, so we now expect inflation to reach 9–10% by year-end. This is a significant deterioration compared to our previous forecasts of around 7%," the company concluded.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) previously downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%.
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