Business in May for the third consecutive time gave positive assessments of the results of its own economic activity, improving them both in monthly and annual terms.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, with the exception of a forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The optimism of respondents from most surveyed sectors was contributed by the stable situation in the energy sector, the receipt of international financial assistance, the revival of consumer demand, improved inflation expectations, as well as the seasonal factor.
In May 2026, the BAEI was 52.1 compared to 51.7 in April 2026 (in May 2025 - 50.8).
Construction companies had the highest performance ratings among all sectors for the third consecutive year, reflecting budget funding for road construction, restoration of damaged infrastructure, high domestic demand, as well as seasonal factors: the sectoral index in May was 55.3 compared to 55.6 in April and 51.5 in May 2025. Respondents continued to expect an increase in construction volumes and new orders, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. High expectations remained for the volume of raw materials purchases. Against the backdrop of softening estimates of the cost of contractors' services, builders were set for lower growth rates in the volume of purchases of their services.
Industrial enterprises improved their positive assessments of their current business performance due to buoyant consumer demand and a stable energy situation: the sectoral index increased to 52.4 in May from 51.5 in April (51.1 in May 2025). Industrialists increased their expectations for an increase in the volume of manufactured goods and new orders for products, including export ones. At the same time, expectations for a decrease in the volume of work in progress and finished goods stocks softened.
Service enterprises also gave positive assessments of their current business activity for the third consecutive time due to an improvement in the energy system and a revival in demand: the sectoral index in May increased to 53.1 from 52 in April and was higher than the indicator in May 2025 (50.9). Respondents were set to further increase the volume of services provided, new orders for services, and services in the process of implementation.
Trade enterprises were the only ones among the surveyed sectors to cautiously assess the results of their business activity, given the increase in fuel prices, exchange rate fluctuations and, as a result, an increase in business costs: the sectoral index in May was 49.6 compared to 50.8 in April (in May 2025 – 50.3). Trade companies maintained positive, albeit slightly lower, expectations for the volume of trade turnover. At the same time, unlike the previous month, a decrease in the volume of purchases of goods for sale and an increase in inventories/remains of goods for sale were expected. Assessments of a decrease in trade margins softened.
Respondents from all sectors expected a slower increase in both purchase prices, prices for raw materials and supplies, and prices/tariffs for their own products/services, as well as goods purchased for sale.
The situation on the labor market remains unstable. Respondents from construction and trade maintained expectations for an increase in the total number of employees, while service and especially industrial enterprises were set to further reduce staff.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from May 4 to 21, 2026. 587 enterprises participated in it. Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.3% were industrial companies, 26.1% were service companies, 23.9% were trade companies, 5.8% were construction companies; 32% of respondents were large enterprises, 27.9% were medium-sized enterprises, and 40% were small.
34.6% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.9% were only export operations, 18.7% were only import operations, and 37.8% were not engaged in foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. It is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business expectations indices are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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