Under a "fragile peace with concessions" scenario, 2.4 million Ukrainian refugees out of an estimated 5.2 million in Europe will not return to Ukraine until at least 2029.
This is the forecast contained in the study by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
The model covered the period from 2026 to December 2029 and analyzed three scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine: victory in the war, a "fragile peace with concessions" and continued hostilities.
What is a "fragile peace" according to the researchers' definition
The "fragile peace with concessions" scenario provides for the cessation of hostilities by the end of 2026, the preservation of russian control over the occupied territories, a medium or high level of investment in government-controlled territories, as well as the end of temporary protection for Ukrainians in the EU in March 2027.
How many people will return home according to forecasts
Under the conditions of Ukraine's victory, according to the researchers, 68% of refugees will return to the country, and 1.6 million people will remain in European countries. If the war continues, 99% of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe.
The authors of the study emphasized that the scenarios are not a forecast of the development of events. According to them, the model is used to analyze how the decisions and behavior of refugees may change depending on different possible scenarios.
The UN also reported that 59% of respondents to the survey among refugees with temporary protection declared their intention to change their legal status within the next 12 months.
How the study was conducted
4,400 people took part in the study.
The study was conducted using the Agent-Based Model method. The model took into account the age of refugees, region of origin and socio-economic status to assess decisions on return or stay abroad.
According to other estimates, even after the end of hostilities, a mass return of Ukrainians from abroad should not be expected. According to experts, only 10-15% of citizens who left during the war may return home.
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