Actual headline and core inflation figures exceeded the National Bank’s forecast path, as published in the April 2026 Inflation Report, due to rising fuel prices.
This is stated in a report by the National Bank, according to the Ukrainian News agency.
The main reason for the deviation of headline inflation from the forecast was more significant supply shocks for certain raw food products. At the same time, core inflation exceeded the forecast trajectory due to increased pressure from business costs. Wage increases, rising fuel prices, and the corresponding increase in logistics and other transportation costs led to faster price growth for services and non-food goods.
The main factor driving the acceleration of inflation remained rising fuel prices against the backdrop of rising global oil prices.
It is noted that fuel inflation accelerated significantly to 36.1% y/y.
Prices for all types of fuel continued to rise, particularly for diesel and automotive gas. Despite a certain decline in global oil prices in the middle of the month, the correction in retail prices was muted due to pricing inertia, as well as the impact of significant inventories accumulated during the price peak and volumes contracted at higher prices.
The growth rate of administratively regulated prices accelerated to 9.4% y/y.
This trend was driven by further increases in fares for city bus, commuter, and intercity transportation, primarily due to rising fuel costs. In addition, major postal operators raised their service fees.
The annual growth rate of prices for raw food products slowed slightly to 8.3% y/y.
In April, the rise in prices for raw food products slowed slightly. In particular, pork prices rose more slowly due to an increase in the supply of imported products. Vegetables used in borscht remained more than half the price of last year due to the active sale of stocks from unheated storage facilities amid warm weather. The rise in cucumber prices slowed due to increased supply from Ukrainian greenhouse complexes amid subdued demand. At the same time, tomato prices rose more rapidly than expected due to insufficient domestic production volumes. As a result of the poor harvest, the pace of price growth for grains accelerated, particularly for buckwheat and millet.
The National Bank believes that inflation will remain close to current levels in the coming months, but will accelerate in the second half of the year (to 9.4% by year-end) due to increased pressure on enterprises’ production costs, particularly from the direct and secondary effects of rising energy prices, the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate under the influence of market factors in previous periods, as well as further wage increases.
According to the NBU’s April forecast, inflation will return to a steady downward trajectory in 2027. The NBU’s monetary policy is aimed at bringing inflation to the 5% target over the policy horizon. Should risks to price dynamics intensify, the NBU will be ready to take additional measures to curb inflation.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in April 2026, inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 1.4%.
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