Kremlin losing its advantage at front, but strengthening its territorial demands - conclusions of ISW

In the spring of 2026, russian troops are demonstrating significantly worse results on the battlefield than during the period when the Kremlin was actively promoting demands for Ukraine for the transfer of the remaining unoccupied part of the Donetsk Region.

This was reported by analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to experts, in early 2025, when the russian leadership was increasing pressure on Ukraine and its partners regarding territorial concessions, the situation on the front was much more favorable for the russian federation than it is now. At the same time, over the past year, Ukrainian forces have significantly increased russia's economic, human and material costs of waging war.

Analysts emphasize that Ukraine has increased the scale and intensity of long-range strikes on russian oil infrastructure and military facilities, taking advantage of the weakness of the russian air defense system. In addition, in early 2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine significantly intensified medium-range strikes on the logistics, equipment, and manpower of the occupiers, which complicated the conduct of russian offensive operations.

According to analysts, during the first four months of 2026, the pace of advance of russian troops fell to an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day. In April, the russian army even suffered net territorial losses.

"ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is trying to create a false sense of political urgency among its negotiating partners, trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of Donbas, which russian troops were unable to take on the battlefield," the report says.

Analysts suggest that russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov is trying to justify Moscow's reluctance to participate in negotiations that do not meet the Kremlin's maximalist requirements.

At the same time, experts emphasize that Ukrainian forces are still capable of inflicting significant losses on russia, in particular during the defense of the so-called Fortress Belt within the framework of the russian spring-summer offensive of 2026, which has not yet brought significant operational successes to the occupiers.

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